Closing Market Comments November 4, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower to sharply lower as chart and technical selling combined with negative outside markets pushed prices lower again today.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn export sales came in at 1.224 mmt. That was above trade expectations and well above the level needed. It wasn’t a game changer or off the chart kind of number but a solid week of export sales for corn.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Similar in soybeans, it wasn’t a game changer but it was a good number with 1.864 mmt. Over 3x’s the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat export sales were nothing phenomenal but they came in at 400 tmt. That’s the best level in 3 weeks and above the level need to reach USDA’s target. Overall, today’s week export sales were considered supportive for the grain markets.

Grain Market News

U.S. Yield and Production

U.S. and World Ending Stocks

2-Day Observed Precipitation

Weather remains favorable for harvest. Over the past couple of days we saw no precipitation across the heart of the corn and bean belt. A few sprinkles in the Great Lakes region and some rains in the southern Plains but the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt remaining dry over the past few days. Combines certainly getting rolling again. We’re hearing of some fog in the northwestern belt but most of the belt is going to be running today.

U.S. Radar

The U.S. radar shows a wide-open screen across almost the entire U.S. Again, allowing combines to get rolling in corn and bean fields and many farmers will be wrapping up this week.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast continues to call for mostly dry conditions this week and into the weekend with rains maybe beginning early next week but another 3-4 days of dry weather should allow many farmers to wrap up with both corn and soybean harvest.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices peaked on Tues morning and since then they’ve been falling and falling fairly hard. At today’s low, corn prices have fallen 30-cents off Tuesday’s high and that is enough to turn the technical indicators lower as well. At this time, we’re sitting right on initial chart support but as far as the chart is concerned no sign of bottoming action on the chart and no sign of bottoming action on the technicals. So certainly, additional downside risk is possible if we break through the chart support that is in place very close to today’s low.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have also turned lower over the last couple of days. Enough to turn the technicals lower. We have a similar story in beans where there is no sign of bottoming action on the chart or the technicals so some additional downside risk is still possible over the next few days.

December KC Wheat Chart

This chart looks very similar to corn. The market has turned down and now prices are sitting on initial chart support. But no sign of a bottom on the chart and the technicals have turned down as well. It does appear there is additional downside risk in the wheat market if chart support does not hold near today’s close.

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