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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as USDA’s Dec crop report was a non-event for the most part.

Grain Market News

U.S. & World Ending Stocks

U.S. Corn Balance Sheet

U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet

U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet

Grain Market News

U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought is expanding in the southern and southwestern U.S. Plains. Drought is still in place along the far northern Plains, along the Canadian border but most of the drought has been removed in the northwestern belt.

U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change

A change in the weather pattern has produced much better rains the northwestern belt and northern Plains where drought conditions have been reduced significantly over the past 12 weeks or 3 months. Anything in green or blue is where drought has improved and yellow and tans are where the drought has gotten worse. You can clearly see improvement in the northern Plains and northwestern belt while the southern and southwestern Plains has seen significant drought increases.

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn export sales improved from last week up to 1.133 mmt and it did include 3 purchases of corn by China which we haven’t seen in quite a while. Today’s exports sales were nearly double the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast and we should see another very good export sales report next week based on the huge purchase by Mexico this week.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sales were up significantly to 1.638 mmt. That’s about 4X’s the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast. China was a little over half of this number but we also so significant purchases from number of other countries.  U.S. soybean export business is improving and today’s number was the best over the past 5 weeks. In fact, USDA has reported daily sales 6 days in a row and 7 out of the last 8 so we’re expecting another big export sales report next week. It’s also noting that export sales the past 3 weeks and again next week, are coming in above the year ago level so we’re catching up very quickly to USDA’s export forecast. USDA did not change its export estimate as it does appear we could reach that target on the improve export pace.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat export sales improved from last week but still very disappointing at 240 tmt. USDA lowered exports by 20 mmt for wheat in today’s report and that seems reasonable given the disappointing exports we’ve seen recently.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices posted another new high for the move up to $5.93. That matches the high posted in early Nov. The next objective is $5.96 which is only a few cents away. The short-term trend is pointed upward, we’re trading above all of our moving averages which are also lined up and pointed upward. The technical indicators are pointed upward as well and not yet into the overbought range. There does appear there is additional upside potential in the corn market in the near term.

January Soybean Chart

Soybean prices continue to chop mostly sideways although we are closer to the upper end of the range that we’ve seen over the past couple of months. The short-term trend for beans is an uptrend. Technical indicators are pointed upward based on today’s firm close and therefore it does appear there’s additional upside potential in the bean market. The first objective will be Monday’s high at $12.74 and then the highs posed about 3 weeks ago at $12.8. Those are the next objectives. That doesn’t mean it the top of the market but the next objective from a chart and technical perspective.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices down sharply today as U.S. and global stocks increased a little bit more than expected. But prices have now fallen $1 off the highs posted just a couple weeks ago. Prices are down at major chart support with technical indicators near zero. Although there is no sign of bottoming action on the chart, this is no place to be making fresh sales. It would be quite easy to see this market rebound and test at a minimum the $8.48 level over the next few weeks especially if corn and beans continue to rally on threatening South American weather.

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