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Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished slightly higher today. The outside markets were lightly supportive and the South American forecast still looks threatening.
Grain Market News
Temperatures Anomaly
In additional to drought conditions developing, heat has become a significant problem. This map shows temperate anomaly for the next week. Argentina is expecting to have much above normal temperatures and that extends into portions of Paraguay, Uruguay, and southwestern Brazil as well.
SA 2-Week Precipitation Forecast
The precipitation forecast for the first week shows very little rain for southern Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, or Uruguay so the drought will continue to develop in those areas. The second week of the forecast does show better rains today. Far northern Argentina and portions of southern Brazil could see better rains. That prevented the markets from getting overheated to the upside today. This is around day 12, 13, 14 so being out that far it could change but nonetheless it gave the markets reason to pause
South American Production
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Export Sales
Corn export sales were down sharply from last week but we were still above last year and above the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast. At this time we do believe corn will reach USDA’s export forecast and if we can get a few bigger weeks throughout the winter we could actually exceed USDA’s forecast for export corn.
U.S. Soybean Export Sales
Similar story for soybeans. Exports sales were down sharply from last week but still above last year and above the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast. In fact, double the level needed. U.S. export sales for soybeans are behind USDA’s pace but we’re catching up fairly quickly and we do believe soybeans will reach USDA’s current export forecast.
U.S. Wheat Export Sales
A very similar scenario for wheat where exports were down sharply from last week but still above the year ago level and above the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast level. The bottom line, today’s weekly export sales report was considered somewhat neutral for corn, beans, and wheat but huge sales of soybean oil and sorghum were supportive.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices at $6.07. That’s a new high for the move by a penny and keeps the uptrend intact. Even though technical indicators are overbought there is no sign of topping action from the technical indicators or the charts. This market is moving higher on South American weather and that will likely be the driving factor Sun night into early next week.
January Soybean Chart
Soybean prices made a new high for the move by just a penny today up to $13.34 but it is a new high for the move keeping the chart pointed upward. Technical indicators are overbought but no sign of topping action in the soybean market and again, weather will be the key factor Sunday night into Monday.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat has exploded to the upside this week. Up 82 cents per bushel since last week’s low at $7.81. The chart is pointed upward. Technicals are pointed upward. No sign of topping action in the wheat market either.
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