Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today as the trade is unsure how to deal with the South American weather that has been extremely hot and dry but is turning cooler and drier this week.
Grain Market News
Observed Surface High Temps
Friday’s high temperatures were well into the 100’s across Argentina’s entire growing region. In Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil as well.
Observed Surface High Temps
Saturday’s high temperatures look similar but new numbers with 105-109 across all of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southwestern Brazil as well.
Observed Surface High Temps
On Sunday we start to see the cool front and rains moving into far southern Argentina while northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil remain well into the 100’s.
Observed Surface High Temps
Yesterday, Monday we see more cloud cover and rain producing highs in the 70’s and 80’s in southern Argentina. But heat remains in northern Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay where 104-109 quite common again. We heard that last week’s temperatures on average was the hottest week ever recorded in much of Argentina’s crop belt. Temperatures averaging 104-106. It is mid-July in Argentina and there are reports that last week’s temperatures were the hottest week ever record in many locations. We do believe irreversible crop damage was likely suffered especially considered soils were quite dry in many of those locations.
SA 2-Wk Precipitation Forecast
Markets always look ahead and they realize it started raining yesterday and over the next week solid rain expected in Argentina’s crop below especially in the south where 3-5” could fall. Relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and Paraguay over the first week of the forecast. When we look at the second week, Argentina sees some moderate follow-up rains with some heavy rains possible in southern Brazil. If the forecast is correct, soil moisture will start to be replenished in many areas but as we mentioned irreversible damage in many areas as well.
Yesterday’s South American Precip
This map shows yesterday’s precipitation. Argentina did get some 1” of rain. The legend is in millimeter and it takes 25mm to equal an inch so we did see 1 inch totals in portions of eastern Argentina.
Grain Market News
NOPA Crush
Last year’s Dec crush, shown in green, was a recorder for Dec. This month was even larger up 1.8% from last year. But please note, it was an all-time record crush, the most amount of beans we’ve ever crushed in a single month. Processing margins are very positive, and we expect the January crush to rival last year and then as last year’s crush slowed down dramatically we believe this year’s crush will remain record levels as we move through the spring and summer months and when the year is down USDA may be forced to raise its soybean crush number.
Canadian Canola
The world is tight on oilseeds and vegetable oilseeds specifically. Canadian canola is a good example when prices in Dec reached $1,100/mmt prices have pulled back but we’re still near record levels. That will encourage some additional planted acres in the Dakota’s and southern Canada next year which will try to steal some acres away from soybeans. We talked quite a bit in Sept, Oct, and Nov about the acreage battle that would take place this year going into the spring. We haven’t heard a lot about it recently because the South American weather has taken over as the primary price driver. But this chart showing Canadian canola prices at record high levels, all-time record highs is just one piece of that acreage battle that will go on through the winter and right into the spring planting season.
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections increased to 47 mb. That’s the highest of the marketing year. We’re still below the 56, almost 57 mb that is need to reach USDA’s forecast but keep in mind we’ll typically see export increase all the way into the Feb, Mar timeframe and stay strong Apr, May, June and we expect that this year.
Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections
After a very slow week, the New Year’s week, soybean exports improved nicely to 63 mb. That is well over double the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat export inspections nothing fancy but 13.5mb is the best over the past 7 weeks. We need to see that number get a little bit larger. We need 18mb per week to reach USDA’s wheat export forecast.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices rebounded. It was an outside day up. We rallied back to where the 10 and 20-day moving average and it comes right into play with the downtrend line off of the Dec highs at $6.17. Between Friday’s rally and follow-through to the upside at today close, we’re sitting right up against overhead resistance. If we can break through that might signal the market is interested in re-testing the previous highs. Chart support now comes in at $5.85 and that is almost 15 cents below where we closed today. Technical indicators have turned upward based on Friday’s strong performance and the follow through to the upside at today’s close.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had an outside day down posting a new low for the move at $13.49 and closing lower on the day. Soybeans are in a downtrend off the highs posted a little over a week ago and the technical indicators are pointed downward as well. While corn shows signs of want to bounce at least on the chart and technicals, beans are still in a short-term downtrend.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices had a big up-day today. We mentioned the markets looked like they were trying to turn up last week. But then Wed, Thurs, Fri they got hit very hard to the downside, pushing prices below what we would consider fair value and technical indicators were near zero. Wheat responded by bouncing and closing 27 cents higher today, coming right up to initial overhead resistance were our 10-day moving average and sharp downtrend line come into play. If we could break through that level, $7.93 is the next target and we wouldn’t be surprised to see wheat trade into the low $8 level as we move into Feb.
To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.
To zoom in on a phone, tablet, or touch screen, place two fingers on screen and move them apart. To zoom out pinch fingers together.
Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today as the trade is unsure how to deal with the South American weather that has been extremely hot and dry but is turning cooler and drier this week.
Grain Market News
Observed Surface High Temps
Friday’s high temperatures were well into the 100’s across Argentina’s entire growing region. In Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil as well.
Observed Surface High Temps
Saturday’s high temperatures look similar but new numbers with 105-109 across all of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southwestern Brazil as well.
Observed Surface High Temps
On Sunday we start to see the cool front and rains moving into far southern Argentina while northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil remain well into the 100’s.
Observed Surface High Temps
Yesterday, Monday we see more cloud cover and rain producing highs in the 70’s and 80’s in southern Argentina. But heat remains in northern Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay where 104-109 quite common again. We heard that last week’s temperatures on average was the hottest week ever recorded in much of Argentina’s crop belt. Temperatures averaging 104-106. It is mid-July in Argentina and there are reports that last week’s temperatures were the hottest week ever record in many locations. We do believe irreversible crop damage was likely suffered especially considered soils were quite dry in many of those locations.
SA 2-Wk Precipitation Forecast
Markets always look ahead and they realize it started raining yesterday and over the next week solid rain expected in Argentina’s crop below especially in the south where 3-5” could fall. Relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and Paraguay over the first week of the forecast. When we look at the second week, Argentina sees some moderate follow-up rains with some heavy rains possible in southern Brazil. If the forecast is correct, soil moisture will start to be replenished in many areas but as we mentioned irreversible damage in many areas as well.
Yesterday’s South American Precip
This map shows yesterday’s precipitation. Argentina did get some 1” of rain. The legend is in millimeter and it takes 25mm to equal an inch so we did see 1 inch totals in portions of eastern Argentina.
Grain Market News
NOPA Crush
Last year’s Dec crush, shown in green, was a recorder for Dec. This month was even larger up 1.8% from last year. But please note, it was an all-time record crush, the most amount of beans we’ve ever crushed in a single month. Processing margins are very positive, and we expect the January crush to rival last year and then as last year’s crush slowed down dramatically we believe this year’s crush will remain record levels as we move through the spring and summer months and when the year is down USDA may be forced to raise its soybean crush number.
Canadian Canola
The world is tight on oilseeds and vegetable oilseeds specifically. Canadian canola is a good example when prices in Dec reached $1,100/mmt prices have pulled back but we’re still near record levels. That will encourage some additional planted acres in the Dakota’s and southern Canada next year which will try to steal some acres away from soybeans. We talked quite a bit in Sept, Oct, and Nov about the acreage battle that would take place this year going into the spring. We haven’t heard a lot about it recently because the South American weather has taken over as the primary price driver. But this chart showing Canadian canola prices at record high levels, all-time record highs is just one piece of that acreage battle that will go on through the winter and right into the spring planting season.
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections increased to 47 mb. That’s the highest of the marketing year. We’re still below the 56, almost 57 mb that is need to reach USDA’s forecast but keep in mind we’ll typically see export increase all the way into the Feb, Mar timeframe and stay strong Apr, May, June and we expect that this year.
Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections
After a very slow week, the New Year’s week, soybean exports improved nicely to 63 mb. That is well over double the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat export inspections nothing fancy but 13.5mb is the best over the past 7 weeks. We need to see that number get a little bit larger. We need 18mb per week to reach USDA’s wheat export forecast.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices rebounded. It was an outside day up. We rallied back to where the 10 and 20-day moving average and it comes right into play with the downtrend line off of the Dec highs at $6.17. Between Friday’s rally and follow-through to the upside at today close, we’re sitting right up against overhead resistance. If we can break through that might signal the market is interested in re-testing the previous highs. Chart support now comes in at $5.85 and that is almost 15 cents below where we closed today. Technical indicators have turned upward based on Friday’s strong performance and the follow through to the upside at today’s close.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had an outside day down posting a new low for the move at $13.49 and closing lower on the day. Soybeans are in a downtrend off the highs posted a little over a week ago and the technical indicators are pointed downward as well. While corn shows signs of want to bounce at least on the chart and technicals, beans are still in a short-term downtrend.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices had a big up-day today. We mentioned the markets looked like they were trying to turn up last week. But then Wed, Thurs, Fri they got hit very hard to the downside, pushing prices below what we would consider fair value and technical indicators were near zero. Wheat responded by bouncing and closing 27 cents higher today, coming right up to initial overhead resistance were our 10-day moving average and sharp downtrend line come into play. If we could break through that level, $7.93 is the next target and we wouldn’t be surprised to see wheat trade into the low $8 level as we move into Feb.
To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.