Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mostly a little lower today in a corrective action following the recent rally.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Looking at our weekly export sale number, corn down from last week but still a good number at 1.175 million metric tons. That’s more than double to meet the USDAs projected forecast.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales
Soybeans were good as well, at 1.096 million metric tons. That’s over 3 times as much as the USDAs projected forecast.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat was very disappointing near a marketing year low at 58 thousand tons, that’s after last week having a marketing year high. In wheat, we’ve had some weeks above the needed level and some weeks below the needed level over the last few months. They are tracking along fairly close to what is needed to meet the USDA’s projected forecast.
Grain Market News
Observed Surface High Temperatures
Temperatures have been warmer than expected over the last 3 days. There have been a few 100’s earlier tis week but yesterday this area expanded into a good portion of Argentina’s crop growing region. Brazil’s temps are mostly in the 80’s except for the far southwestern portions of Brazil’s growing region along the border with Paraguay.
South America 2-Week Precipitation Forecast
The general trend on the South America forecast has been less precipitation being forecast for Argentina. You can see relatively dry conditions in the 1st week and that continues into week 2 also. We are starting to see the weather model hint at another round of dryness for Argentina.
Drought Monitor vs. Last Year
The numbers that came out earlier this morning and last years for comparison. The biggest differences have been increased amount of drought in the southern and western plains compared to last year. While the northwestern belt and portion of the northern plains have less drought than they did last year.
Drought Monitor Class Change
Here is a map that shows the drought monitor class changes from 52 weeks ago, 1 year ago. You can see the increase or worsening drought in the southern plain while in the northern plain drought has improved.
24-Hour Observed Precipitation
Over the past 24 hours the frontal boundary has produced heavy snow and rain. Unfortunately, most of that stayed east of the plains needing it the most. Portions of eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas did get good rain. But unfortunately rains in the western plains got mostly a tenth to a quarter of an inch, with some areas a little less and a little bit more in the northern portions of the Texas panhandle. Overall, the central and southern plains did not get as much rain as had hoped for.
March Corn Chart
Looking at the March corn chart, corn prices had an outside day down meaning we had a new low for this move at 6.20. That’s down 32 cents from the high posted on Monday. The 2-day pull back on corn now has the chart pulled downward at least for the short term and has been enough to turn the technical lower as well. It appears that corn may want to test chart support in the lower 6-dollar range
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did not make a new high today, they closed just fractionally lower. This doesn’t turn the chart down, but it is the first time in the last 8 trading sessions that soybeans closed lower. The previous 7 sessions had closed higher to sharply higher. One day does not make a trend, but we’ll see tomorrow if there is any follow trough to the downside. With technical indicators extremely overbought, the soybean market is subject to a correction from a chart and technical perspective. This could give the soybean market a little bit of a setback even if we did not receive fresh barrish news.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices made a new low coming down to 7.53. That’s taken wheat prices right down to our long-term trend line support. Which is part of a pennant formation, with lower highs and higher lows, it’s a narrowing formation and anything within this range is fair game. Right now, the market is pushing lower within that pennant formation. There is no bottoming action within the chart or technical at this time but with prices down near chart support we are not advising any sales within wheat at his time.
Questions or Comments
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