Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished sharply higher across the board today as Russia invaded Ukraine last night.
Grain Market News
Map
To give you an idea of what has been taking place. this map shows eastern Ukraine the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The area in the blue was previously occupied by Russian separatists, and that’s the area that Russia has invaded. Obviously, they are going have the least amount of resistance in this area as well.
Map Expanded
If we expand this map to show a wider view, the area dotted in red is where the separatists controlled eastern Ukraine and that’s the area that Russia has invaded.
But they do have troops and equipment and artillery across the northern and southern border as well as a ship in the Azoz and Black Seas. Virtually having troops on three sides of Ukraine.
This an important grain producing area of the world, this grain moves from Ukraine into the Azoz Sea and into the Black Sea and then eventually works its way into the Mediterranean Sea where that grain can reach areas of the middle east as well as North Africa.
Grain Market News
South American
This map shows that southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina did get some rain over the three-day weekend with the best rains in far southwestern Argentina.
South America 2-Week
As we look ahead to the 2-week forecast, the rains we mentioned fairly significant in portions of southern Brazil and Argentina later this week with additional rain possible for next week.
One item that will need to be monitored is how much dryness remains in portions of central Brazil where they are going to be wrapping the planting of their suprema crop over the next few weeks.
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Our inspections came in at 62.07 million bushels.
That’s the best total for the marketing year and we should expect a lot of 60-70 even 80-million-bushel totals over the next 4 months to come.
Our year-to-date exports are down 10.6% from last year, USDA is estimated that exports will be down 10.9%.
We believe that the USDA is far underestimating what exports will be and that will tighten our ending stocks of corn in the months to come.
Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections
Turning to our soybean export inspection, they continue to decline seasonally at 35.8 million bushels but still well above the level needed to reach USDAs export forecast. Soybeans has a similar story to corn, that we do believe our exports, over time, will exceed USDAs current export total and end up reducing our ending stock.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Looking at the wheat exports, 19.8 million bushels were inspected for export last week, that’s the best number going back to early October and above the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.
For the first time in 4 months exports were above the level needed.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices exploded to the upside to 6.76 on the march contract.
That’s the highest we’ve seen for this move and in fact it’s a new contract high for corn.
The long-term trend of the corn market is pointed upwards, the intermediate term trend is pointed upwards, and the short-term trend is pointed upward.
There is no sign of topping action in today’s chart or technical signals.
March Soybean Chart
Soybeans also exploded to the upside reaching 16.41, that’s a new high for the move and anew high contract for soybeans as well.
The long term, intermediate, and short term were all pointed upward.
There was no sign of topping action on the chart or the technical signal today.
March KC Wheat Chart
Similar scenario where prices exploded to the upside reaching 8.84 today. But the difference is e did not yet take out the contract high posted back in late November.
Nonetheless all trends are pointed upwards, and wheat is like corn and beans where we didn’t see any topping action.
It is worth noting that corn, beans, and wheat are all getting overbought on the technical indicators but no sign of topping action.
Questions or Comments
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