Today’s Prices
Grain market finished higher again today with wheat leading the way up the limit as the Russian/Ukraine war continues to intensify.
Grain Market News
Map
One of the reasons the Ukraine supplies are not available to the world right now is there are three primary ports.
Mariupol in the east-southeast portion, Kherson in the south central, and Odessa on the southwest portion of the Ukraine border with the Black Sea.
Word this morning is that Russia has now overtaken the city of Kherson and taken control of that port while battles go on in Mariupol and Odessa.
Once Russia controls all three cities and all three ports that will block off virtually all exports or imports to Ukraine.
Port at Odessa Ukraine
This picture shows the port at Odessa, Ukraine. As you can see a lot of loading and shipping takes place in this large port.
Most military believes that Russia will try to take control of this port in Odessa the next couple days.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Today’s weekly export sales report was actually a little disappointing just 485 thousand tons of old crop corn were sold. That’s the lowest in nearly 2 months, but its still very close to the level needed to reach USDA’s forecast.
We would expect that over the next 3-4 months, now through June, that we could see consistent exports well above the dark black line, which is the level needed to reach USDA forecast.
This means that US exports are very likely to exceed USDA estimate and lower US ending stock in the months to come.
Soybean: Weekly Export Sales
Soybean export sales were also somewhat disappointing, the lowest in nearly 2 months, at 857 thousand tons, but still well above last years and well above the 208 thousand tons that’s needed weekly to reach USDA export forecast.
This year’s size of the losses of the soybean production in South America is going to result in US exports consistently running at or above the level needed for the next 3-4 months and our same thought is in place for soybeans that we discussed in corn.
That is that larger exports above the USDA estimates will allow for US exports to exceed USDA and therefore lower US ending stock.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
We’ve seen a number of weeks above target and a number of weeks below., this week was virtually right on the USDA target. This required 314 thousand metric tons per week.
At this point wheat exports are on track to hit USDA’s target, but if the world needs to find supplies elsewhere to replace lost supplies out of Russia/Ukraine it is still possible that US exports could exceed USDA export forecast.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices were limit up for a good portion of the day up to 7.60 but did back off at the close closing at 7.47. About 12-13 cents off the daily high.
Chart and technical indicators are almost irrelevant as the updates and news stories coming out of Russia/Ukraine war that will drive prices in the days and weeks to come.
It’s worth noting that nearby corn prices are approaching last year’s high that was hit in early May.
March Soybean Chart
Soybeans closed a little bit higher today, but they closed well off the daily high. The chart is still pointing sharply upward but this market like corn and wheat is going to be extremely volatile.
We will see limit up days and limit down days as well, the bottom line is we have chart support coming in around upper 15’s and $16 range.
Overhead resistance at last week’s high at 17.59.
We would say anything within this range is fair game over the next few weeks.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been exploding to the upside, this is the KC May wheat chart and wheat prices have rallied about $2.60 in the last week.
Chicago wheat has rallied over $4 in a weeks’ time.
The market has exploded to the upside over the last week as the Russia invasion of Ukraine puts a large share of the world exports, in fact Russia and Ukraine combine for 28.5% of global exports and over 2 billion bushels of wheat.
It’s a potential loss of supply, not that they will be damaged in warehouses, but they may not be available so it is still a loss of supply that the world cannot access.
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