Today’s Prices

Grain prices were mostly lower today, although wheat was able to bounce.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspection

Keep in mind that export inspections are grain that has left US ports and has been counted or measured by USDA inspection service as it leaves

Corn inspections this week at 45 million bushels, below the 60 million total we seen the previous 3 weeks.

Today’s export inspection for corn were considered very disappointing but don’t be surprised to see it bounce back fairly quickly in the upcoming weeks.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspection

Soybean inspections were okay, nothing remarkable. 28 million bushels that similar to what we’ve seen the past 3 weeks and above the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

The good news is despite the US raising its export forecast for beans by 40 million bushels, the last 3 weeks are still above that higher level needed.

KC Wheat: Weekly Export Inspection

Wheat inspections had a big decline at just 10.3 million bushels, which was very disappointing, about the lowest we’ve seen in the last 2 months.

This was also only a little over half of what we needed to meet USDA export forecast.

Bottom line is today weekly export inspections report was considered disappointing for wheat and corn and okay for soybeans.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation: % of Normal

Normally as we approach mid-March the marketplace is talking a lot about US weather. US weather is still important but it’s being overshadowed by details regarding the Russia war on Ukraine.

This map shows the past 30 days of precipitation.

Extremely dry conditions remain in the southwestern plains and that dryness has extended into portions of eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa as well.

It’s still early but farmers in these regions are concerned about the lack of soil moisture in this part of the corn and bean belt.

On the other end of the spectrum is extremely wet weather from portions of the eastern belt into portions of the Ohio valley and the lower great lakes.

Again, this isn’t a major concern today, but it does put in question whether they will be able to plant timely in this portion of the US.

90-Day Precipitation: % of Normal

This is from mid-December through mid-March, you can see that trend of dryness in the southern plains extending into eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and adjacent areas of South Dakota.

Also see that the pattern of above normal precipitation in the eastern belt an Ohio valley is not a near term but also an extended period which is shown in this 90-day precipitation map.

We also want to monitor rain and snow and snowpacks in the far northern plains, northwestern Minnesota, and portions of central and eastern North Dakota where they have gotten quite a bit of winter precipitation.

U.S. Drought Monitor

The update came out last week on Thursday and you can see not only there is a drought in the southwestern plains but its expanding into the western corn belt. Specifically, in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

Short-term Objective Drought Blend Equivalent

This is a short-term drought blend showing not only where we are developing short term drought, but this map also shows where we have surplus moisture in portions of the eastern belt and Ohio valley

Calculated Soil Moisture Anomaly

This Shows that we have drought conditions in the southwestern plains, dryness building in the western belt, and also a surplus of soil moisture in portions of the eastern belt and Ohio valley.

All these charts and graphs utilize much of the same data but come to the same conclusion. Its wetter than desired in the eastern belt and Ohio valley and dryer than desired in the western belt and in the plains.

Its only mid-March but again the trade will start to watch these conditions more carefully as we approach early April and the start of planting season.

July Corn Chart

 Most buyers have now switched to pricing off July charts, so we have switched over to July.

As you can see for about the last week and half the market has been mostly in a consolidated nature. We have not posted new highs since they hit 7.47 on the July board a little over a week ago, this indicates that the trade is uncertain what to do at this point.

The funds and speculators are already long, do they add more or start to look to take profits and exit.

At this point there isn’t a clear direction, so the funds and speculators are sitting tight with prices chopping back and forth.

If prices should explode to the upside and make new highs it may create the next selling opportunity, while prices would fall sharply and nothing major has changed that might create the next buying opportunity.

But for now, we are sitting tight with prices chopping back and forth near the upper end of the range.

July Soybean Chart

Soybeans have a similar scenario with the market chopping back and forth near the recent highs. We have not been able to reach new highs off the highs posted 2 weeks ago at 17.41.

Over the last almost 2 weeks the market has been consolidating near these recent highs.

A breakout to the upside could create a new selling opportunity or a breakout to the low side could create a buying opportunity.

But at least for now the markets are chopping in a sideways range, technical are almost dead center and chopping sideways as well, so we will sit tight for the moment and wait for the net move. 

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices posted their highs a little over a week ago at 12.59, traded all the way down to 10.27. So, setting back $2.32 off of the recent highs.

The recent break in prices des make the chart look more negative but it’s also been able to relieve the overbought pressure from the technical indicators.

If the Russia Ukraine war is ongoing in the days or even into next week anything down towards the $10 range on nearby wheat could be considered a buying opportunity with overhead up at 12.59.

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