Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished a little lower today in mostly a mixed choppy trade today and a mixed choppy trade for the week.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
Ukraine: Corn Production
This map shows Ukraine and shows that most of the corn production is in the central and north central portion of the nation.
The capital of Kyivska is somewhat close to the heart of their corn growing region.
Global Corn Exporters
This chart shows the exports in mmt, the US is the largest exporter of corn followed by Brazil and Argentina.
Ukraine is right up there at the 4th largest exporter in the world and Russia is much smaller, about 1/9 the size of Ukraine
This was the estimate prior to the Russian/Ukraine war and Ukraine was expected to export 33.5mmt. That’s over half the size of the US exports and that’s why this is such an important factor when it comes to the global S&D for corn and therefore US corn prices as well.
Ukraine: Wheat Production
Wheat is a little further south in Ukraine, wheat is grown all the way down to the southern border and up to the Black Sea.
Global Wheat Exporters
The European union, although this is all countries combined, is 37.5mmt. Russia would be the largest individual country of 35mmt of wheat exports. But when you look at the European union combined, they would be number 1.
Look at Ukraine at 24.2mmt, that’s larger than the US export and much above Canadian exports and Argentina exports as well.
These last two tables showing global wheat and global corn exports gives us a very good idea as to why this Russia war against Ukraine is so important for prices in global supply and demand.
Grain Market News
7-Day Precipitation
Our 7-day precipitation map shows some good news for the central and even portions of the southern plains where 1-1.5 inches of rain could fall. Most of this coming in the late Sunday, Monday, Tuesday timeframe.
Also, good news for the western corn belt where portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa could see a decent shot of rain.
This won’t end the drought, but it would certainly be beneficial as we head towards the Spring planting season.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
We seen some rains in portions of the western corn belt, most of this fell yesterday and last night.
From western Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas. We seen areas in green that had anywhere from a half inch to an inch, even some with a 1.5-inch totals were being recorded.
U.S. Drought Monitor
We see that those drought conditions are very prominent in the western corn belt and the central and southern plains. That’s why the rainfall that came in last night and the rainfall that is expected will be very important as we head towards spring.
Calculated Soil Moisture Anomaly
The soil moisture anomaly shows that dryness in the western belt and into the plains.
At the same time, we have excessive moisture in the northern portions of the Delta, Iowa valley, and stretching up towards the lower Great Lake region.
Additional heavy rain is expected in the northern Delta and the Ohio valley and that could cause problems if this pattern extends into the planting season.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices are not giving as much direction this week, the market for the most part has been in a sideways choppy range for the last 2 weeks or so.
The fact that the highs and contract highs were posted 2 weeks ago at 7.47 and the recent high from Monday were significantly lower establishes a little bit of a short term down trend but he long term is still upward.
This means we have mixed signals from a chart perspective and when we look at our technical, we also see mostly a sideways choppy pattern as the marketplace waits for new development specifically regarding the Russian war on Ukraine.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also stuck in a mostly sideways range over the last couple of weeks.
The long term is still an uptrend but given the fact that we are near the contract highs and actually not too far from all-time highs has the market participants very cautious at this time as they wait for new development regarding the Russia war on Ukraine.
Will supplies be readily available from this region come spring and summer or is this war something that could go on for an extended period causing additional losses and lack of availability from the Black Sea region?
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are in a short term down trend off the high posted 2 weeks ago.
We did not make a new low this week, but we are trading near the lows that we have seen over the past few weeks.
The long-term trend is still and uptrend and in the short term the wheat is trying to establish somewhat of a downtrend.
Technical indicators are still pointed downwards so there is some potential for additional downside risk next week if we can’t get some friendly news in the wheat market.
Questions or Comments
