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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished higher today as we start a new week with Russia’s war on Ukraine continuing to pummel cities across the nation. 

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

We can see that over the last week there’s been virtually no precipitation in the northern plains and northwestern belt. That’s not a problem in North Dakota where they are still melting off the final snow in the far northern region but it’s becoming a bigger concern for northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, portions of south Dakota and into northern Nebraska where soil conditions are very dry at this time of the year and the snow is gone.

In the eastern belt there is moderate rain, half to and 1.5 inches, they could use some drying in the eastern belt as well as in the delta. Then the southwest plains need rain badly, but they may get some rain over the next 24-48 hours.

60-Day Precipitation % of Normal

The 60-day precipitation that has fallen shows that dry pocket in the northwest corn belt where some areas have had less than 25% of the normal range for the last 2 months and more. That dryness extends into the southwestern plains as well and quite a different story in the eastern belt.

From the northern portions of the delta through the Ohio valley and portions of the Great Lakes have had 1.5 to 2X the normal amount of precipitation.

Right now, if we wanted to summarize the weather conditions it’s too dry in the western belt and plains and too wet in the eastern plains and Ohio valley.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Over the next week it looks like we could get some rain in the central and southern plains and that would be very beneficial.

Unfortunately portions of the Delta into the southern Ohio valley could have additional rains but they don’t need it.

Keep in mind for most areas are not yet into the planting season but we do need to see better rains in the western and northwestern belt and less rain in the eastern belt going forward to allow for an effective planting season.

Official 30-Day Forecasts

Temperatures on the left for the month of April shows above normal temperatures for the entire belt and the central and southern plains seeing possibly much above normal temperatures.

On the precipitation outlook on the right side for the month of April, the beginning of our planting season. It shows above normal precipitation in portions of the Ohio valley and the lower Great Lakes, that snot wanted, they would like some dryer weather. Dryer weather is forecast for the central and southern plains.

So, the forecast is hinting that the overall pattern that’s been in place for the last 2-3 months could remain in place as we move through March and then through April.

Grain Market News

Corn Weekly Export Inspections

Corn exports at 57.7 million bushels, just a little below the 61 million bushels that needed to reach USDA forecast.

We do believe that as we get into the end of March, April, May, and June that we could see plenty of days where exports are between 60-70 million bushels.

 If that’s the case, then we will be well above the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

Soybean Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean inspections hit a marketing year low at 20 million bushels, just slightly below the 22.6 that’s needed weekly to reach USDA export forecast.

The large losses of South American production and the fact that we started to see some bigger export sales is indicating that we are going to end up with exports at or above the USDA target now through June.

We think that exports will exceed the USDA forecast as we get close to the end of the marketing year.

Wheat Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat export inspections, wheat was disappointing at 12 million bushels versus the 18 million needed weekly to reach USDA forecast.

The bottom line is that today’s export inspections were a little disappointing for corn and beans and disappointing for wheat.

But we do think that the inspections for all three grains will improve significantly as we get into April, May, and June.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices shot upward today, we did close about 8 cents off the daily high, but it was still a good move on the chart after trending lower late last week and now we have bounced back.

It was enough to hook the technical indicators, but they are stuck in the middle range and our overall corn prices are still stuck within the range that has been established over the last 3 weeks.

Anything within that range is fair game over the next few days.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also shooting higher today, matching the highs that were posted about a 1.5 weeks ago. This is by no mean a breakout this is just continuing the choppy trade within the range that has been established over the last few weeks.

Anything within this range is fair game over the next few days and through this week.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have also been chopping back and forth, a massive rally on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and then a very sharp pull back and since then we have been very choppy.

As we mentioned for a week or so now, we expect more choppy ranges to continue.

Right now, our range is from about the 11.50 range down to 10.25, anything within this range is fair game in the near term.

Questions or Comments

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