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Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished higher to sharply higher again with wheat leading the way on lower-than-expected winter wheat crop ratings.
Grain Market News
Winter Wheat Crop Condition
You can see that this year 2022 shown in red, at 30% good to excellent. The second lowest ever, just 1996 at 27% is the only year that was lower than this year’s winter wheat crop rating. This was clearly viewed as bullish news today.
Last year’s shown in green was much above this year at 53% good to excellent and two years ago 2020 was even better, those years came in at or above average. The long-term average is shown in the black line, you can see clearly it was not only below average but one of the lowest ratings ever.
Calculated Soil Moisture Anomaly
You can see dryness in the plain states except for far eastern Kansas, far eastern Oklahoma, but most of the plains are much dryer than normal with above normal moisture in the Northern Delta, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lake states.
Its clear to see why the hard red winter wheat stock is in much worse shape than the soft red winter wheat crop.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Unfortunately, the precipitation over the next 7 days does not show much improvement in the plains.
From southern Nebraska through the southern and southwestern plains there is virtually no rain in the forecast for the next 7 days.
Additional rain in the delta and Ohio valley, nothing excessive just around a half to 1 inch.
CFSv2
El Nino would be sea surface temperatures above average which is above the horizontal line and temperatures below average are called la Nina.
These below surface temperatures in the equatorial pacific were below normal in October-February and that created what many believed the drought conditions in South America.
La Nina conditions are generally associated with dryer than normal weather in the southwestern US into the plains as well.
When we look at these la Nina conditions as of today, we are almost 1 degree below average but that’s expected to continue through the Spring and Summer and into our harvest timeframe.
Many meteorologists wonder if this could cause a stagnate pattern of weather in the US, meaning more dryness in the plains and western belt and wetness in the far eastern belt. This is yet to be determined but it is worth monitoring.
Drought Monitor vs. Last Year
This year as of March 29th shown on the left side and last year as of March 30th on the right side.
Although drought conditions were severe out in the far southwestern US last year, we had very little drought in the plain states.
This year quite different much of the US plains is suffering from drought conditions and that is affecting the hard red winter wheat crop.
As we approach the Springtime, we had severe droughts in North Dakota and adjacent areas of Montana and South Dakota last year.
Much of that drought has been reduced, the exception would be in Montana where severe drought is in place.
Drought Monitor Change vs. Last Year
This chart shows the drought monitor change versus last year.
Greens/blues are where you have seen several class improvements in the drought and areas in yellow/brown is where drought has gotten worse.
It’s clear to see drought is much worse than year ago in the plain states except for the far northern plains where drought has improved.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
US planting is beginning, and USDA did report planting progress coming in at 2% complete. That was the same as a year ago and that’s average for this time of year.
We should see the US planting increasing gradually through mid-April and then start accelerating in Late April into May.
We’ll be watching carefully to see conditions as we plant, right now its too dry in the plains and too wet in the east.
The plains will still get to plant their crops, but it may be under less-than-ideal conditions and planting could be slowed in the Delta into the Ohio Valley and eastern belt.
This certainly bears watching as there is no room for error in the US crop this year.
U.S. Soybean Planting Progress
USDA is not likely to report planting until we get to the 3rd week of April 2 weeks from now.
The United States doesn’t reach 50% planted on soybean until we get about to the middle of May. That is the 50% mark for planting on average.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices continue to rally and today we did post a new high at 7.55 in nearby July corn.
That keeps the trend intact, in fact the short-term trend has turned upward over the last week and the technical indicators have turned up.
There is no sign of topping action in the corn market at this time especially if we can break through the 7.55 level over the next couple of days.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had a significant correction last week and now this week the chart is starting to turn to the upside and that has turned the technical up from oversold.
Initial overhead resistance comes in between 16.25-16.40, that’s 10-25 cents above where we traded this morning. More significant overhead resistance coming into play just below the $17.00 mark.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices like soybeans were trending lower last week but they’ve turned higher as well. The short-term chart is trying to break out to the upside, and it has turned the technical up as well.
The next level of overhead resistance, if we can get a little bit of friendly news would be 11.47 where we had a double op during the month of March.
The 11.47 level is nearly 60 cents from where we closed today.
Questions or Comments
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