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Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today with traders adjusting positions ahead of tomorrow’s USDA April crop report.
Grain Market News
U.S. Ending Stocks: 2021-22
The trade is expecting corn ending stock to come in at 1.4 billion bushels, that’s down 40 million bushels from last month.
Soybean stocks expected to come in at 254 million bushels, down 31 million bushels from last month.
Wheat stocks expected to come in at 654, that would be virtually unchanged from a month ago.
South American 2022 Production
The trade expects Brazilian corn crop to be u by 1.2mmt and that’s primarily due to the fact that the suprema corn crop, which accounts for 75% of Brazil’s corn production, was planted timely and weather so far has been good.
But keep I mind that dryness is starting to settle into portions of central and northern Brazil.
Nonetheless the trade is expecting a slightly larger corn crop in Brazil.
Brazilian soybeans are expected to come in at 125, that would be down 2mmt from last month. Keep in mind that Conab came in this morning at 122.
Argentina corn is expected to be down 1.1mmt from USDA’s estimate last month with Argentina beans down 0.9.
World Ending Stocks: 2021022 Crop Year
Th trade expects corn stocks to come in at 300.7, that’s down just fractionally from last month.
Bean stocks at 88.4, down 1.6mmt from last month.
Wheat stocks at 281.5 would be unchanged from a month ago.
Keep in mind that Russia’s war on Ukraine has not altered global production but it has certainly restricted the availability of stocks out of Ukraine.
Grain Market News
Central IL Anhydrous Ammonia Prices
Here in the US this is no surprise, but this chart does show that US Anhydrous prices in the central Illinois were reported round $500 per ton in 2019-2020.
They’ve been rallying consistently since then and since Russia invaded Ukraine those prices have rallied even further,
Current prices are around $1500 per ton and availability could also be a question down the road.
Corn Weekly Export Sales
Corn came in at 782 thousand tons, that’s not a massive number but it’s almost double the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.
Keep in mind that the US sold China 1.08mmt on Monday.
We expect next week exports to be up around that 1.8mmt level, this is not only a huge number but keep in mind from about early April forward last year’s exports shown in red were very low.
This year not only could we see a big number in next Thursday’s sales report but we expect a lot of weeks to continue coming in well above the black line which is the level needed weekly to reach USDA export forecast.
USDA may choose to leave their export forecast unchanged for corn due to the current pace, but we anticipate that sales and shipments down the road will be increasing and ultimately USDA will be forced to raise its export forecast for corn.
Soybean Weekly Export Sales
Soybeans came in at 800 thousand tons, that was down from last week but sill a big number.
We have nearly reached USDA’s export forecast and we are only in early April normally we don’t reach USDA’s export estimate tell mid-June.
You may ask how we normally reach the USDA export forecast by June? That’s because we typically have exports on the books at the end of the year and some of those get cancelled or rolled into the next marketing year.
So, there is a certain amount of export sales on an annual basis that do not get shipped in the current marketing year and normally we reach USDA’s export forecast by mid or late June.
It’s almost a certainty that our exports are going to end up well above USDA’s export forecast.
Wheat Weekly Export Sales
Wheat was a disappointing item today like it has been for the last month.
Despite Russia’s war against Ukraine, world buyers have been trying to find excess supplies and buying wheat from India, Australia, and France.
The US has not picked up much additional business and it does look like we are going to fall short of the USDA target.
Over time as the world exhausts supplies in some of those other countries mentioned, we believe that the world will be coming to the US for additional wheat and that next year’s exports will be much bigger than this year’s exports.
Keep in mind that this crop year will end on May 31st, so we are only 6-7 weeks away from the marketing year.
10-Day Snowfall Forecast
This map shows big snows in eastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota.
The bottom line is that we will likely see some heavy snows next week in portions of the far northern belt, whether that is 6 inches or a foot and a half.
Nonetheless it does show that conditions are very cold and wet for this time of the year in the far northern belt.
In fact, it’s cold and wet in the central portion of the belt this week as well and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of improvement going forward.
This map also shows some dark grey areas in southern Minnesota, western Iowa, and other areas. Even these areas could have potential for 2-4 inches of snow.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Anywhere from an inch to an inch and a half in the central and northern belt and 2-5 inches of rain down in the Delta.
This could certainly delay early corn planting especially in the areas of the southern belt down into the northern Delta where they would like to be planting now.
July Corn Chart
Corn prices were higher today, we didn’t make a new high that was posted 2 days ago at 7.55 but we did post a new high close.
Keep in mind technical indicators are getting into the over bought area for the first time in a little over a month.
We are not bearish in corn but with the market bouncing the way it has been we could see this market pullback and remain in a longer-term uptrend.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices continue to show signs of bouncing off the low posted late last week and the technical indicators also looking good.
This market has now achieved our first objective which is where all the moving averages are coming into play.
The 10-, 20-, and 40-day moving averages with the next level of overhead resistance up in the 16.80-16.90 range, that doesn’t mean that would be a high that’s simply the next objective if we can get some bullish news.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have also turned in a short-term uptrend, technical turned up as well.
Wheat has paused now as it has had inside days for two days in a row now. Therefore, the market pausing as it waits for fresh information in the USDA crop report which comes out tomorrow morning at 11:00am.
This market looks like it could have solid support at the 10.50-10.60 range with overhead resistance up at 11.47 where we have a double top from the month of March.
Questions or Comments
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