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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as there was no clear bearish or bullish story to drive prices in today’s headlines.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks

This year USDA began reporting in May, shown in green, 20221-2022 crop year which started last May and will go through the end of the marketing year this summer.

You will notice that USDA stock for this current crop year is in relatively stable condition, no major issues.

We do anticipate that stocks will start to slip lower as exports kick into a higher gear due to the loss of South American production and the Russian Ukraine war.

We believe that our ending stock will end pup the year below where they were last year at the lowest level in 8 years.

U.S. Soybeans Monthly Ending Stocks

USDA raised stocks significantly in the August-October timeframe but now we are starting to trend lower again.

USDA has lowered its ending stock projection 3 months in a row with last Friday ending stock at 260.

Here again we expect that the US exports are going to be well above the USDA expectations and that will lower our stocks number as we move through Spring and Summer.

We do believe that when we get to the end of the marketing year our stocks will be well above the year ago level.

This idea is supporting current prices that are well above the year ago price.

U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks

USDA has raised ending stocks for wheat 6 months in a row, we are now sitting at 678 million bushels.

But we believe that ending stocks will end up something close to this level maybe a lit lower.

If our ending stocks do end up at 678 it will still be the lowest over the last 8 years.

The bottom line is that it’s very possible that the US corn, soybeans, and wheat stocks will all end up at the lowest level over the last 8 years and that’s the underlying fundamental that’s supporting our current prices.

We believe that our ending stocks will be getting smaller not larger in the months to come.

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Today’s number in corn at 55.8 million bushels was a little disappointing coming in slightly below the level needed for USDA export forecast.

But we do believe that exports for the most part will be at or above the level needed as we move through the Spring and into the Summer

US corn exports are likely to end up well above the current USDA forecast.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybeans cam in today at 28.1254 million bushels, that’s the largest over the last 4-week s and above the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

We believe that soybeans exports will be at or above the level needed consistently over the next 3-4 months.

That will allow US soybean exports to come in well above what USDA is currently projecting.

Keep in mind that exports sales of soybeans that re on the books but have not yet shipped in the current marketing year are nearly double what they were a year ago and we believe that new sales will be good as well.

Again, USDA is very likely underestimating us soybean exports.

Wheat Weekly Export Sales

Wheat bounced nicely from the previous 4-week which were very low, unfortunately they are still below the level needed to reach USDA forecast.

We do note that there is a fairly strong trend that exports are relatively slow in March but improved nicely in April.

We would not be surprised to see exports improve and end up being fairly close to US total buy the end of the marketing year in about 6-7 weeks.

Grain Market News

14-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 2 weeks areas where they would like to be planting in the southern Ohio valley, Delta, down into the deep south have had quite a bit of rain.

Rain anywhere from 1-3, 2-4 inches of rain has kept it relatively slow planting in the Delta and Ohio valley.

Typically, by mid-April the central are of the US corn and bean belt are getting planting done. But it has been too wet and too cold.

The dry weather benefit planting out in the western and southwestern plains but that’s not go d news for soil moisture conditions in the hard red winter wheat crop.

7-Day Precipitation forecast

From the Delta region up into the Ohio valley and portions of the eastern belt have 1-2, 2-4 inches of rain expected over the next 7 days.

That will keep things very slow there and although planting may start to get more aggressive in the central and western plains the drought conditions should continue to build if this forecast is correct.

1-2 even 2.5 inches of moisture is expected in the northern plains, its going o fall as snow in many locations in fact much of North Dakotas is anticipating 1-2 feet of snow.

3-Day Snowfall Forecast

1-2 feet of snow is expected over the next 3 days in much of North Dakota, in fact some areas could have over 2 feet of snow.

One area we may be concerned about is northeastern North Dakota where areas of the Red River Valley could have issues with rain and melted snow. This could delay planting and cause preventive plant, but it is early we are just monitoring.

Temperature Outlooks  

Conditions may start to be drying out a little bit for planting in the western belt unfortunately most of the eastern belt is expected to remain wet in the 6-10 day.

In the 8-14 day the temperatures look to remain below average which will slow drying in areas.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices made a new high for the move up to 7.70 on the July chart. But they did close a little bit lower so a little bit of something for everyone.

The bottom line is that all the trends and moving averages are pointed upward.

Our technical indicators which were very overbought did turn lower on today’s lower close and so we do need to monitor this market for the potential for a correction.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had rallied a 1.16 over the last week and today we closed sharply lower with prices coming back down to our moving averages.

It’s possible the soybean market may want to test chart support around the $16 level, if so that would be 40 cents below todays close.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices made a new high, they did pull back about 15 cents off of the high, but still a positive close.

The short term is clearly pointed upward with prices today a $1.67 above where they were at about 2 weeks ago when KC wheat hit 9.93.

We took out the double top today at 11.47 but closed below that double top.

The wheat market has been very choppy over the last couple of months, we could see additional choppiness and we can’t rule out a correction back down towards chart support in the upper $10 range.

Questions or Comments

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