Today’s Prices
Grain markets higher across the board as the rally continues in virtually all grain markets.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
The US corn planting progress this year is shown in red, and we are at 2% complete, that’s the same as last week at 2%.
Last weeks 2% was likely something like 1.6-1.7 averaged up to 2 and this week its likely something like 2.3-2.4 which averaged down to 2.
The black line shows the average over the past 17-18 years and it’s worth noting that we typically hit the 50% planted mark around the 5-6 of May.
Last year in yellow, we got off to somewhat of a slow start, but big weeks with the first and second week of May allowed the US farmer to plant 50% of their crop in 2 weeks.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
There isn’t much improvement for the weather forecast for the central and eastern belt.
Generally, a half inch to an inch of rain across most of the central and eastern belt with areas up to 2.5 inches in portions of Indiana extending into the Delta.
Keep in mind that from the Delta up into the southern Ohio valley is an area that should be planting wide open if weather would permit.
We would normally see progress ramping up in the central US corn belt by next week, but the current wet cool forecast may keep progress slow.
3-Day Snowfall Forecast
The snowfall forecast includes 1-2 feet of snow in much of North Dakota into the southern Canadian prairies and some areas could see something closer to 3 feet of snow in central North Dakota.
As we mentioned yesterday, many farmers will welcome the precipitation, but it will slow the start of the spring planting season.
U.S. Spring Wheat Production
North Dakotas counts for 52% of spring wheat so any crop that has not been planted yet could see a delay of 10 days to 2 weeks or so.
As far as corn and soybean, most of the corn and soybean that are planted in the North Dakota area are on the eastern edge, but central and western North Dakota is a big area for small grains and specialty crops.
United States: Barley, Oat, Rapeseed. Sunflower
North Dakota plants 26% of the nation’s barley crop, 17% of the nation’s oat crop, almost all of rapeseed or canola in the US in North Dakota, and sunflower is at 42% of the nations crop.
Grain Market News
Chicago May Ethanol Swaps
Ethanol prices have risen from about $2.38 per gallon to $2.54. That’s a 16-cent rally but gasoline has rallied even more keeping ethanol competitive in fuel blend.
When it comes to May ethanol, we are getting close to the highs posted back in late February in the upper $2.50 area.
Unleaded Gasoline
Unleaded gasoline as I mentioned bounced 12-16 cents today, its still nowhere near the highs posted the week following the Russia invasion of Ukraine but it is up about 18 cents off of the low from last week.
Winter Wheat Crop Condition
USDA rated the US winter wheat crop at 32% good to excellent, that was up 2% from the previous week and was viewed as a little bit of a surprise that the crop improved.
A combination of some rain in portions of Oklahoma and the fact that as the crop greens up sometimes it looks better allowed for the crop conditions to improve by 2% on a nationwide average.
Keep in mind this is still far below average which is around 52% this time of year, its below last years rating of 53% good to excellent, and the rating from 2 years ago at 62% good to excellent.
The current crop rating is among some of the lowest over the last 36 years.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices posted another new high, today’s high at 7.73 is the new contract high and keeps the uptrend intact.
But we have been noting that the technical indicators are extremely over bought, that doesn’t mean that the market has found its top, but it does tell us the market is in a position where a correction to the downside would not be difficult.
Initial chart support would come in at 7.44 with further chart support down in the 7.25-7.30 range.
There is no sign of topping action, but the market is certainly becoming more vulnerable to a correction based on chart and technical.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did not make a new high today, soybeans have been somewhat consolidating over the last 3 days.
The next level of overhead resistance would be a downtrend line that comes into play around the 16.90 level with chart support initially where our moving averages come into play around 16.40. Further chart support down around the $16 level.
Technical signals are dead center in the middle of a neutral range and are pointed upward.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices made a new high for the move today up to 11.79, we clearly broke above the intermediate double top at 11.47.
If you are bullish the next objective on the chart would be the 12.59 high posted back in early March, if you are bearish your objective would be something around the $11 level where the uptrend line comes in to play and our moving averages.
We expect the wheat market will remain volatile and anything within this range is fair game.
Questions or Comments
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