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Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today as traders are reluctant to put on new positions ahead of the 3-day Easter weekend.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
Low Temperatures: 4-13-22
Temperatures in the 20s even teens in the western belt and northern plains with temperatures in the 30s through most of the rest of the belt.
The cold air is continuing to push off to the east and south and therefore we are going to have another 3-5 days of cool to even cold temperatures which will prevent planting.
We are going to see low temperatures over night below freezing for much of the US corn and bean belt and that will prevent any significant planting advances even if rain slows down.
Snow Depth
Given we have 4-5 days of very cold temperatures it could take nearly 2 weeks to remove all the snow in some of the hardest hit areas of North Dakota and then we have to warm things up.
It will be quite some time before we start thinking about planting in the far northern plains.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Almost all snow in North Dakota and the rest of the belt saw significant precipitation as well in the form of rain.
This will slow or even halt planting with the only exception out in the plains where it remains dry over the last week and drought conditions are in place.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
We still have a quarter to 3 quarters of rain coming in mid next week to the central US corn and bean belt.
A combination of cool temperatures and some rain is going to keep things slow for at least another week to 10 days.
There are some improvements in the longer-term map.
Temperature Outlook
Warmer temps look to start improving conditions in the central and northern plains and a general drying trend which would be favorable from the Ohio valley, Delta, into the eastern belt.
As we look ahead to the 8-14 day, generally above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in the Delta and eastern belt, that would be very favorable.
It still looks like it will be wet in the northern plains, but the precipitation would be beneficial in the central and southern plains.
The eastern belt could see improvement later in April, the southern and central plains could see improvements, while the northern plains may remain too wet.
Grain Market News
Corn Weekly Export Sales
Corn export sales very good at 1.33mmt, that was expected with China buying a larger chunk last week on Monday.
This is approximately 4x the level needed to reach USDA export forecast and we believe that USDA will be needing to raise its export forecast and therefore lowering ending stock for corn.
Soybean Weekly Export Sales
Soybean export sales were considered slightly negative at 549 thousand tons because that came in at the lower end of the range of expectations.
When you realize we only need 44 thousand tons to reach the USDA forecast the soybeans export sales actually a good number.
We expect more good numbers in the weeks and months to come and we expect USDA to raise the export forecast as well.
Wheat Weekly Export Sales
Wheat export sales were very disappointing, we have not seen a big increase in export sales in wheat.
In fact, the last 5 weeks have been below the level needed which is 354 thousand tons per week to reach USDA forecast and todays was at 96.
We need to see a few good weeks of sales or wheat is at risk of possibly seeing its export number reduced again.
March Corn Chart
Corn made another new high for the move, in fact we’ve made a new high every day this week. Today’s high at 7.86 on the July corn chart.
The trend is pointed upward but technical indicators are extremely overbought.
There is no sign of topping action yet but with prices rallying to new highs and technical indicators over bought the market is becoming at risk of seeing a correction.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did make a new high for the move to 15.79 today but for the most part it’s been a consolidated week for beans with prices closing near where we closed last week on Friday.
We continue to believe that anything within this pennant formation is fair game.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices made another new high for the move, they’ve made a new high all four days this week with today’s new high at 11.90.
There is no sign of topping action in the wheat market, but technical indicators are getting into the overbought range.
Questions or Comments
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