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Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished sharply higher today across the board as weather is less than favorable and the war between Russia and Ukraine rages on.
Grain Market News
2-Week Brazil Rainfall Forecast
Week 1 on the left side of the screen, which is today through April24th, on the right side is the second week of the forecast April 25th-May1st.
We’ve highlighted Brazil’s primary suprema corn growing region, you can see that most of central and northern suprema corn growing region has no precipitation in it for the next week and the second week out is just as dry if not even dryer.
This is a big concern for suprema corn in Brazil.
Along with the dryer conditions, warmer temperatures are also expected to begin developing.
This story is evolving and developing and could get more and more attention if this forecast is correct.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Big rains down in the southern portion of the US where they would like to be planting wide open at this time.
Moderate rains across the central US where they would like to be starting this week.
Of course, there is nothing happening in the far northern and northwestern belt where North Dakotas has a blanket of snow.
This tells us that planting progress in this afternoon’s report is going to show limited progress. Last week we were at 2% and this week we could be at 4-5% but that number should be accelerating more quickly as we now move into the 3rd week of April.
Low Temperatures Saturday
Single digits in North Dakotas, teens across northern Minnesota and South Dakota, 20s across the northern half or more of the belt, and 30s through basically the remainder of the belt.
Low Temperatures on Sunday
Temperatures were even cooler on Sunday to the south with teens remaining in the northern belt, 20s across the northern half, 30s across the southern half.
These cold temperatures combined with precipitation last week are preventing corn farmers from getting aggressive in much of the country.
4” Morning Soil Temperatures
The 4” depth soil temperatures this morning showed temps below freezing in the far northern and northwestern belt, temperatures over 30s in most of the belt, with just below 40s in the southern portions of the belt.
This is certainly not the preferred soil temperatures for corn to be planted or for germination.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast does not show much of a break except for the far southwestern plains which could be dry and the gulf coast that could maybe dry out.
The Delta region into the southern Ohio valley and central belt looks like we could be seeing an inch to an inch and a half over the next 7 days. With more precipitation in the far northern belt as well.
This is not a favorable forecast when it comes to mid to late April and planting of US corn crop.
Temperature Outlook
The 6–10-day map shows warmer temperatures in the central and eastern belt but that may come along with wetter than normal conditions.
As we look to the 8-14 day, we may start to see things dry out with near normal precipitation, but it also cools off for a good portion of the Delta except for the far southwestern plains.
The combination of either too wet or too cold or both that could prevent planting from accelerating nicely over the next couple of weeks.
Grain Market News
Corn Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections were disappointing at 44.8 million bushels, we had been hovering near the level needed for the previous four weeks but todays were disappointing. We do expect it will bounce back nicely.
Soybean Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean inspections increased to 35.7 million bushels, that is a huge number. Typically, when we see export inspections for soybeans declining, we are seeing our exports increasing.
This is primarily due to massive crop losses in South America due to the drought in November-February.
Soybean export inspections certainly a positive and we expect them to remain strong at or above the level needed for an extended period of time.
USDA will certainly be raising its export forecast in the crop report come May-July timeframe.
Wheat Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat was the best it’s been over the last 7-weeks at 15.8, but still below the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.
The bottom line is that today’s weekly export inspection report was somewhat disappointing for corn and for wheat but very good for soybeans.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices surged to 8.10 per bushel in fact May corn at 8.16 was just 27 cents short of the all-time high price recorded in August of 2012 during our massive drought of 2012.
So, corn prices very close to all-time record high levels.
Long term, intermediate, and short term are all pointed higher. The only area of caution would be when we look at some of our technical that are extremely overbought.
That doesn’t mean our prices have found a top it just tells us the market is becoming somewhat susceptible to a pull back.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices rallied up to our downtrend line, that’s the upper end of our pennant formation and today the market looks as though it’s trying to break through to the upside.
If prices push through this pennant formation, we mentioned last week that prices were stuck in the middle of a pennant formation, and if we go above that that would make 7.13 and 7.41 the next target for the soybean market.
Technical indicators are now starting to enter the overbought range but no sign of topping action yet.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices higher again today, getting very close to $12 per bushel. But the contract high posted back in early March is at 12.59, approximately 60 cents from where we are today.
The wheat chart looks pretty good, technical indicators are over bought but the strong prices today turned them back upward.
Again, the next level of overhead resistance is up at 12.59 on the July KC wheat chart.
Questions or Comments
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