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Today’s Prices
Grain markets pulled back today, closing a little bit lower in mostly a corrective type of action.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
This shows planting progress over the last 17 years, the black line is the long-term average.
Keep in mind the USDA planting progress is only the 5-year average, so much shorter term.
Long term average we should be about 10% planted, last year we were about 8% planted and this year only at 4% planted.
So, we are certainly getting off to a slow start and based off of current conditions we are not likely to catch up in the next few weeks.
Last year we planted 29% of the crop from late April into the early portion of May and then another 21% of the crop by May 10th. So, half the US crop last year was planted in 2 weeks.
Weekly Corn Planting Progress
Last year’s shown in tan shows that we didn’t plant a lot of corn in the beginning of April.
50% of the US corn crop was planted in two weeks from about April 26th to May 10th. That is not likely to happen this year.
In general, if you get good planting conditions over a wide area of the US, we can plant 20% or more of the US crop on a good week. But we do not see a window allowing 20% to get planted next week or the following week.
Winter Wheat Crop Conditions
Nationwide our crop condition declined 2%, last week we improved 2% but fell back this week to 30%. That’s the lowest since 1996, 26 years ago.
All of the plain states from Texas northward up to South Dakota saw crop conditions decline in this week’s report.
A decline in crop conditions combined with the low rating historically tells us that this year’s yields will likely be below trend and our abandonment could be above trend this year due to drought in the plains.
Grain Market News
2-Week Brazil Rainfall Forecast
Showing mostly dry conditions across Brazil’s suprema corn belt in the 1st week of the forecast, and that dry pattern continues into the second week of the forecast as well.
This becoming a bigger concern for the Brazilian suprema corn crop.
Temperature Anomaly
In addition to the drying conditions, we are starting to see a warming trend, temperatures through March and into early April were mostly at or slightly below normal.
But the red indicates temperatures above normal, so we are starting to see a warming trend combined with the drying trend.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The US forecast shows 1-2 inches of rain with isolated heavier in the central US 1-2 inches of rain in the North and Northwestern belt, and lighter rain in the eastern belt.
The only dry area would be in the far western plains and then the gulf coast region.
Temperature Outlook
Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt looks to be cooler than normal in the 6-10 day with wetter than normal in the central and eastern portion.
That certainly could provide more planting delays in many areas.
Looking at the 8-14 day we continue with the cooler than normal but good news is it may be dryer than normal.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices were higher overnight making a new high for the move at 8.14 but we did turn around and close lower.
So, a bit of a reversal day to the downside and a little bit disappointing for the bullish news. The chart is still pointed upward just had a disappointing close with technical indicators well overbought.
If we did see a further correction, support would come in at the 7.50-7.75 range.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also posted a new high for the move today up to 17.05 earlier this morning. Prices did turn down and closed slightly lower on the day.
The chart is still pointed upward, and we are still trying to break through overhead resistance.
Bottom line is that the soybean chart looks good but a setback towards our moving averages in the 16.50-16.60 can’t be ruled out if we had a little bit of bearish news.
Overhead resistance currently between 17.13 and 17.41.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices made a new high at 11.98 per bushel, but wheat like corn turned around and closed lower on the day.
That was enough to start turning our technical indicators a little bit, if wheat doesn’t get some bullish news in the next day or two we could have a correction with chart support around the 11.40-11.50 range.
Questions or Comments
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