Today’s Prices
Grain Prices finished mixed today with corn and wheat lower on profit taking and improving weather outlook.
Grain Market News
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat sales were very disappointing, a marketing year low of just 26 thousand tons and below what we need to reach USDA forecast.
The disappointing export sales contributed to today’s sale off in wheat.
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Corn export sales were down from last week to 879 thousand tons, that may have been a little below what the trade was expecting but still a very good number.
Well over double the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales
Soybeans were similar to corn, came in below export expectation at 460 thousand tons, but still well above the level need to reach USDA export forecast.
We expect more good weeks in sales and will continue to exceed USDA target until USDA raises its export forecast.
Grain Market News
Ukraine Map
Earlier in March, Russia had occupied a good portion of northern and northeastern Ukraine.
A 100 thousand troops traveling up and down the main and planting land minds in many fields prevented much of the planting.
But over the last few weeks Russian forces have evacuated or left areas of northern and northeastern Ukraine and they are focusing their attention on eastern, southeastern, and southern Ukraine.
The fact that Russian troops have left, even though bombing is still taking place and about 80% of the landmines have been cleared following Russians exit, allows northern Ukraine to be more comfortable planting.
14-day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 2 weeks we had some big rains in the northern plains, big rains in the Ohio Valley down through the delta, and moderate rains in the central and eastern belt.
Unfortunately, where drought conditions are in place down in the south and western portions of the US plains there has been virtually no rain over the past 2 weeks.
Calculated Soil Moisture
Soil moisture rankings are extremely dry in the central and western plains and very wet in the southern and eastern belt and very wet in the far northern plains.
Average Temp Anomaly
So far, the first 20 days of April have averaged way below normal, significantly below normal in the central, northern, and northwestern belts.
Even well below normal in the southern belt and eastern belt into the Great Lakes.
The only area that has been seeing warmer than normal temperatures is along the Gulf Coast.
The combination of wet weather and cool temperatures has kept planting slow so far.
U.S. Drought Monitor
Drought continues to expand in the central and western plains while virtually no drought is in place across the central eastern belt as well as the Ohio Valley.
Also, up in North Dakota in the far northern plains a drought has been removed based on rain and snow totals.
U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change
In one year, drought has improved dramatically in the far northern plains, specifically North Dakota while drought has increased dramatically in the central and western pains versus last year at this time.
NWS Active Alerts
Current weather shows winter storm watches and warnings in the far northern plains along with some flood problems in much of North Dakota.
While the central and southern plains have red flag warnings and high wind warnings.
Certainly, there is plenty of challenges with our spring weather currently, but the forecast does show some improving weather next week.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Heavy rains in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, most of this coming in over the weekend.
Additional rains in Iowa and northern Illinois over the weekend and then some rain Sunday and Monday down into the far southern and south-central portions of our belt.
The rain for most of the U.S. corn and bean belt will keep planting slow, at least through the weekend.
Unfortunately, not much rain in the far western plains and maybe some rain in portions of the central plains.
Planting progress overall is likely to remain relatively slow until we can get into a dryer pattern next week.
Temperature Outlook
The 6–10-day outlook shows warmer to the southwest and cooler to the northeast but relatively dry across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.
It may not be warm, but the dryer weather should certainly help advance planting if this forecast is correct.
The 8–14-day has more of the same as far as temperatures; warmer to the south and west and cooler to the north and east.
Dry weather to continue in the far eastern belt, normal in the central and southern, while above normal could damper planting in the far northern belt.
Overall, we do not look at the forecast as overly threatening, we should see a window develop beginning next week and then possibly into the following weekend where we could get an acceleration in our planting place.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices have not made new highs for a couple of days and even though today was sharply lower prices appear to be consolidating at least for the moment near the upper end of the range.
It does make the charts look a little bit toppy and enough to turn the technical indicators down as well.
Current overhead resistance on the July corn chart is at this week’s high at 8.14, that’s about 20 cents above todays close with chart support down in the 7.60-7.70 range.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices continue an uptrend, we made a new high earlier today up to 17.23 on the July contract.
We have now taken out the spike highs from late March and the next target would be the contract highs at 17.41 which aren’t too far away.
If we cannot get bullish news and the market sees a setback, chart support is likely to come in to play in the 16.50-16.60 range.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices look a lot like corn, wheat prices turning lower over the last couple of days, a new low for the week was posted today when wheat was sharply lower.
This was enough to turn the technical lower as swell.
Forma chart and technical perspective it does look like wheat could have some additional downside risks with chart support coming in around the $11 level.
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