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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today with outside markets being a negative influence but grain specific news being positive.

Grain Market News

U.S. Temperatures

We have very cool temps, at noon today temps were in the 20s in the red river valley of the north, 30s in portions of central and northern belt, and warmer temps in the 60s along the Ohio river valley down into the delta.

Soil Temperatures

The cold ai r temps result in cold soil temps as well.

Soil temps at a 4” depth this morning was below freezing in the far northern plains and in the 30s all the way down into Nebraska and to the Minnesota Iowa border.

40s for most of Kansas and northern Missouri and then again warmer temperatures in the Ohio Valley down into the Delta.  

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Most of the central belt saw half an inch to an ich and a half and the northern plains saw 2-3 inches of rain across much of the area.

That’s on top of the snow that is covering the ground in North Dakota which is causing some flooding issues.

Excessive moisture is problem for some, but drought also continues to be a problem in the central, southern, and western plains.

Good news for US farmers is down in the Gulf area and far southern areas where it is dry and warm, but this isn’t the heart of the US planting area.

U.S. Rivers in Flood Stage

We mention3ed 2-4 inches of rain falling in the red river valley of the north and that’s falling on snow, so a combination of rain and melting snow is causing major flooding.

This will cause delayed planting and potential for preventive acres down the road.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Another 1-2.5 inches of rain possible across much of the Dakotas into western Minnesota.

The central and western plains remain in serious drought conditions.

Temperature/Precipitation Outlook

Our 6-10 day shows cold temperatures in the north with warmer temps to the south.

The warmth in the south is good news but unfortunately a wet pattern in much of the belt is going to keep planting slow.

The 8-14 day we finally get some normal temperatures in the heart of the belt, warmer in the south, unfortunately it remains wet for the northern plains and the heart of the corn and bean belt.

There will be some planting that takes place, but it will remain at pace well below normal.

Overall U.S. weather is viewed as a bullish item if the forecast verifies.

Grain Market News

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Corn inspections came in at 64.99 million bushels, his is a very good number, the best of the marketing year. This was above the level needed to reach USDA forecast.

Based on big sales with China in the last 3 weeks of US corn we expect some good numbers to be posted for corn exports now into early June.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybean sales were down sharply from last week, last week was a huge number just shy of 40 million and this week at 22 million. That was somewhat disappointing, but it is still right at the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

Based on export sales on the book but have not yet shipped we believe that exports are going to be very strong now through summer.

Wheat Weekly Export Sales

Wheat exports inspections disappointing at just 10.5 million bushels this week.

We need to get a few good weeks if we are going to reach the USDA export forecast.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices are in a long-term uptrend, the intermediate term trend is also upward, but the short-term trend has turned down off of last week’s high. Technical indicators have turned down as well.

Today’s strong close may allow our technical to turn up again but there needs to be some follow through for the prices to challenge the highs at 8.14 to keep the overall trend upward.

If we do not get bullish news this market could fall in to the 7.60 range.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also in a long term and intermediate uptrend but Friday’s reversal down and todays follow through to the downside does have the short-term chart looking more negative and the near term technical looking negative as well.

If we do get some bullish news this market could easily test the 10- and 20-day moving average and then our uptrend line down in the 6.30 range.

Current overhead resistance s in the 7.35-7.40 range where we saw a high back in late February and then on Friday.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices like corn are in a long-term uptrend and intermediate uptrend but the short-term trend has turned down to a small degree with the technical turning down as well.

So, corn, soybeans, and wheat do look like there is some potential for a farther correction to the downside if we can’t get some friendly news over the next few days.

Some good news for wheat is we consolidated Friday and consolidated today so there is a sign that maybe the correction we seen the last 3-4 days is enough.

Questions or Comments

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