Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished steady to mostly higher today following USDA’s weekly update of crop progress and crop conditions.
Grain Market News
Weekly Corn Planting Progress
This is not cumulative this is each week individually.
This year in red, early in April we planted 2% the following week we planted 2% and then we did not make any progress the third week and this week we made 3% progress from 4% planted to 7% planted.
But when we look at the yellow line, that’s average over the last 13 years, normally we would be planting 14% ending late in April but this year is just 3%.
Next week we normally would be planting on average 19% of the crop, we will be lucky if we plant between 6-8%.
If you look at yellow, you can see that our planting peaks in late April early may and then gradually decline until we get the crop planted by mid-June.
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
We are currently 7% planted with the US crop, that compares to 16% last year.
USDA says that the average is 15% but that’s the last 5 years. If you look at the past 17 years our planting progress would be about 24% compete.
The reason there is such a big difference between our 17-year average and the USDA 5-year average is the USDA 5 year includes 2 very slow years in 2018-2019, whereas the rapid pace years of 2005-2006;2010-2012 are not included in USDA short term average.
The bottom line is that we are near record slow for late April and we need to see the weather improve.
Winter Wheat Crop Condition
Our crop conditions dropped for the 2nd week in a row down to 27% good to excellent, that is tied with 1996 shown in the blue.
Only 1 years since records shave been kept in 1986 has been lower.
These low wheat ratings would suggest that this year’s winter wheat yield could easily be 10-20% below average.
Grain Market News
Topsoil Moisture
It’s the combination of being too dry in the Palin states and too wet in much of the eastern and southern belt that is getting off to a very disappointing start for US Spring crop.
U.S. Temperatures
In addition to dry areas in the plain states and wet areas to the east, we can also see temperatures down into the 20s into northern Missouri. That is extremely cold, in fact record cold for this time of the year.
Low temperatures in the 30s recorded down into Oklahoma and southern Missouri as well as most of the eastern belt.
Again, the combination of cold temperatures and wet conditions that’s going to continue to keep planting at a slower than normal pace.
Soil Temperatures at 4” Depth
Soil Temperatures this morning in the 30s in northern Nebraska and northern Iowa through the Great Lakes regions.
Temperatures in the 40s through basically the rest of the corn and bean belt.
Certainly, very cold soil temperatures for this time of year.
NWS Active Alerts
Red flag alert, high wind conditions, and dry conditions creating fires in the plain states.
Frost advisories and freeze warnings across the central US and flooding taking place in the northern plains in the Red River Valley of the north.
These all combined does not allow for a good planting start.
Snow Depth
North Dakota is still showing quite a bit of snow on the ground, some areas in western ND still looking at 20 inches of snow on the ground.
Even portions of eastern ND still have now on the ground despite the flooding taking place.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Unfortunately, more rain is in the forecast for ND, northwest Minnesota, and the central US over the next week.
There may be a little good news for Nebraska and southern South Dakota, those areas actually could welcome some rain. Unfortunately, it’s been so cold that planting is at a slow pace.
There is not much rain for the western and southwestern plains in the next week.
Temperature Outlook
The 6-10 day shows temperatures below normal, and the 8-14 day shows below normal for most of the corn and bean belt with the exception of the southwest plains.
As we look at moisture, wetter than normal for most of the belt in the 6-10 day and wetter than normal for the 8-14 day.
The best weather will be in the southern and southwest plains where they would like to see some precipitation.
The current forecast through the next 2 weeks does not look promising when it comes to looking for a window to advance planting.
July Corn Chart
Corn prices rebounded nicely, we made a high last week at 8.14, that’s overhead resistance.
We set new lows both Friday and early yesterday down around the 7.80 level, that 34 cent trading range has been in place for a week now.
Bullish news could push us to a new high while bearish news could push this market down into the 7.70-7.75 range.
Technical indicators had turned down significantly based on prices Friday into early yesterday but today strength and stronger close are trying to turn technical back up again.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices have been stuck in a range for the most part, that range has been from about 16.25-17 over the past few months.
Soybeans have overhead up in the 17.34-17.41 range, chart support down in the 16.30-16.55 range.
Anything within this range appears to be fair game in the near term as prices have run into some overhead resistance but are still in a long-term uptrend.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices look a lot like corn, they did turn lower late last week but have now turned back higher again in the last couple of days.
This allowed the technical to turn down again late last week but trying to turn back up today.
Bullish news could push us easily to the $12 level, our high from last week. Bearish news could push to chart support in the 11.25-11.40 range.
Anything within this trading range would be fair game in the near term.
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