Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished higher with wheat again leading the way to the upside on tightening global supplies.
Grain Market News
Corn Weekly Export Sales
Corn exports were at 783 thousand tons, that is the lowest over the past 4 weeks, but still 2.5 times the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast.
So, you can see our export sales this year are consistently running above the black line meaning that USDA is likely going to have to raise its export forecast in future crop reports.
Soybean Weekly Export Sales
Soybean exports were also very good at 735 thousand tons, the best number yet in the last 4 weeks.
Our export sales have already reached USDA total for the year that’s why the level needed is negative. We still have nearly 4 months to go in the marketing year.
This is solid evidence that the USDA is significantly low with its current export forecast and would ultimately result in lower ending stocks
Wheat Weekly Export Sales
Wheat export sales have been very disappointing over the last 2 months, todays exports were up a little bit from the previous 2 weeks at 119 thousand tons. We are nearing the end of the marketing year for wheat which is the end of May.
Therefore, there is only 4 weeks left in this year’s export sales program.
At this time, it appears we are going to run at or just slightly below the current USDA forecast.
Grain Market News
24-Hour Observed Precipitation
We had some very heavy rain in the southwestern belt into the eastern plains, this int the heart of the belt so it isn’t a major problem.
A lot of this problem is moving to the north and easter though and will start to fill in portions of Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.
U.S. Radar
We can see those heavy rains in the eastern plains yesterday is moving to the north and east.
It has filled in most of Indiana, Illinois, and will fill in Michigan and Ohio as well as we move through the next 24-48 hours.
The cloudy skies and scattered showers are keeping planting at a minimum in these areas.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast does show those rains that moved out of the eastern plains overnight and then going to be filling in the areas along Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
This will keep planting at a standstill in this area until we can get a dryer stretch of 3-4 days.
Unfortunately, the northern plains and far northwestern belt has more rain in the forecast which will keep planting slow as well.
Temperature Outlook
Th 6-10- and 8-14-day forecast do show the potential for an improved window of opportunity for the eastern belt.
Above normal temperatures are forecast in the 6-10 day for the entire US corn and bean belt and much above normal in the eastern belt, that could be combined with a dry session as well to open a window of opportunity.
Looking ahead to the 8–14-day temperatures expected to remain above normal, especially in the eastern belt, and conditions could remain normal to slightly below normal rainfall.
So, the window of opportunity does look like it could open for the eastern belt.
Unfortunately, in the western and northwestern belt above normal precipitation in the 6-10 and the 8-14 day could keep planting very slow across the northwestern belt as well as the northern plains.
June Corn Chart
Corn chart support is at 7.80, overhead resistance at 8.24, this range has now been in place for about 3 weeks and the market is consolidating at the upper end of the range.
When prices moved to new high last week technical indicator were in the overbought range and now the pull back from last week’s highs has pulled our technical indicators to a neutral range.
June Soybean Chart
Soybeans have also carved a range; in fact, this range has been in place since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Recently prices have pushed down towards the lower end of the range and that has allowed soybeans to see a bounce and the chart is looking better.
The technical indicators hooking to the upside today indicating that this market may be interested pushing back towards initial resistance just above the $17 level.
June KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have also made a range over the last couple of months. It has been extremely volatile in the wheat market with big moves up and down.
In fact, we had big moves here recently and prices have now rallied nearly a $1 off the early week’s lows.
We’ve gone from the lower end of the range to the upper end of the range in just a few days.
Grain Marketing Recommendations
Questions or Comments
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