Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 7 days we as a lot of moisture in the central and southern belt during the week last week.
That kept planting at a minimum in most of the belt.
The northern belt was in the process of drying out last week but then over the weekend and today the northern belt got rain.
Today’s planting progress numbers are going to show minimal progress last week but as I mentioned a window of opportunity should develop this week.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
You can see some heavy rains in the northern plains late Saturday-Monday and that’s going to keep planting at a standstill in the northern plains.
But portions of the central, southern, and eastern belt have not had much rain now over the past 3 days.
So, we should start see planters rolling in many of those areas maybe in portions of northern Iowa along the Minnesota border.
Temperatures in the 70s-80s in the western belt, 60s in the eastern belt on Saturday, and then yesterday mostly 60s-70s again.
Unfortunately, in the southwestern plains where drought is ongoing temperatures into the triple digits both Saturday and Sunday.
Rivers in Flood Stage
Rivers in flood stage show significant flooding in the northern plains, specifically on the Red River Valley of the North.
Also scattered flooding throughout the central and eastern belt where heavy rain last week put many rivers at or slightly above flood stage.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Over the next 7 days most of rain looks to be focused on the northern plains where planting will remain at a standstill in northern South Dakota, North Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota.
The central belt could get some scatted showers in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe but nothing heavy. They should be planting ahead of that.
The plain states should see some planting in the eastern belt before they have a chance of rain this weekend.
The central and southern belt should have very good windows of opportunity to advance planting this week while the northwestern belt remains almost at a standstill.
The 6-10 and 8-14-day forecast show some cooler temperatures moving in next week into the northern belt and that continues into the eastern belt and great lakes next week.
Precipitation is expected to be dryer in the plain states by this weekend and then remain dry in the central belt into the western plains in the 8–14-day forecast.
The bottom line is it look like we start to return to a warmer and dryer forecast for the wet and southwest into the plains and may start to turn into a cooler, wetter forecast for the eastern belt and Great Lakes.
Keep in mind a lot of aggressive planting is likely to take place this week.
Grain Market News
Corn Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections were down from last week and below the level needed to reach USDA forecast.
So, todays export inspections were somewhat disappointing, but we expect to bounce back and be at or above the level needed on a consistent basis through May-June.
Soybean Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean inspections were also down from last week, we are at a marketing year low of 18.5 million bushels but still consistently running above the year ago level.
We do expect our export inspections to be at or above the level needed to reach USDA export forecast on a consistent basis through the rest of the Summer.
Wheat Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat inspections down to just 8.7 million bushels, that’s the lowest going back to the month of January.
We have been running below the level needed, but year to date inspections are down 20% and USDA is projecting that wheat exports will be down 20.9 and so with just 3 weeks left in the marketing year it appears that US exports of wheat could be fairly close to the estimate.
July Corn Chart
Corn prices have now fallen back 55 cents off the highs posted on April 29th.
We have come back down to our upward trendline and where the 40-day moving average comes into play.
Technical indicators getting very close to the oversold level, we would expect to find chart support around today’s low.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices made a new low on the move down to 15.78, soybeans have almost fallen a $1.50 off the highs posted just a little over two weeks ago.
Soybeans have broken chart support, so the chart does look negative but technical indicators are extremely oversold.
Therefore, we believe soybeans are going to be finding major chart support very close to todays low.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been rallying recently and today made a new high for the move challenging the high from a couple weeks ago at $12.02.
The loss of India’s wheat crop and developing drought in Europe has the wheat market in an uptrend.
We believe the wheat market could be in a position to challenge its contract highs at $12.59 as we move through May and into June.
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