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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply higher across the board with wheat leading the way due to India banning exports.

Grain Market News

Indian Wheat Exports

When India has good crop they can export, 20 years they exported 4-6 million metric tons, 10 years ago they exported 5-7mmt. Over the past couple of years, they were able to export 8-9mmt.

There was some talk that India this year may be able to export 10mmt, but as weather has harmed their crop current estimates from Ag resources estimated only 1.5mmt in exports.

That would be either government sales or wheat sales that are already on the books.

Paris Milling Wheat

European wheat shot up along with U.S. wheat today to new highs for this move and now are approaching the contract highs from March.

NOPA Soybean Crush

NOPA issued their April crush, the April soybean crush came in at 169.8 million bushels in the month of April.

That was up 5.9% from last year, now this was slightly smaller than what the trade expected but still significantly the year ago level and the second highest April crush on record.

With cash crushing margin estimated to be above $3 per bushel in the western and eastern belt, it’s expected that soybean crush is going to remain strong and near record levels as we move into the summertime.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn was disappointing at just 40.8 bushels, compared to exports near 60 million bushels last week, which was adjusted upward by over 3 million bushels.

Today’s corn export inspection number was disappointing and likely allowed corn to remain relatively quiet compared to the big rally in the wheat market.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans came in at a huge 28.8 million bushels, well above the level needed to meet the USDA forecast and a near record large soybean export number for mid-May.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat exports bounced from last week up to 27.8 million bushels, still somewhat disappointing.

There is only 2 weeks left in the marketing year and USDA is not likely to make large adjustments to their export numbers in next months report.

Unleaded Gasoline

Unleaded gasoline exploded to the upside going well above the $4 level.

Given the fact that ethanol slots are trading in at about 2.75 per gallon, ethanol is extremely competitive for the blenders and the demand should remain strong for ethanol.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The 7-day shows a pretty good opening where much of the central and southern us has only scattered showers and some locations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana had nearly a week of drying weather.

Planters were stated to be rolling aggressively in many areas.

In the central and southern belt if you happen to be under some of those pockets of shower, that could have been disappointing.

In the northern plains from North Dakota, Minnesota, adjacent areas of the southern Canadian prairies, and South Dakota remain very wet.

USDA will be updating its planting progress numbers for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat this afternoon.

We are looking for corn planting to advance from 22% last week up to something between 42-45% this week.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Looking ahead we may start to see more delays again.

The northern belt and northern plains could see more rain, and the central/eastern belt could see more rain.

A half inch to an inch and a half which would slow down planting.

We may see progress, but remaining acres may be more delayed.

Temperature Outlook

This shows the northwestern half of the belt below normal temperatures in the 6-10 day and the northern half of the belt in the 8-14 day below normal temperatures also.  

July Corn Chart

Corn prices bounced support at the uptrend line and the 40-day moving average a week ago.

Prices today pushed into new highs for the move up to 8.10, not only is that a new high for the move but it has surged above both the 20- and 40-day moving averages.

The technical indicators also pointed upward, therefore from a chart and technical perspective, 8.24 looks to be the next level of overhead resistance.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also shooting higher to new highs for the move up to 16.68.

That’s 90 cents above last Mondays low and with the chart and technical pointed upward this market looks like it may be interested in testing the upper end of our range in the 17.25-17.50 level.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices gapped higher and finished limit up at 13.52 taking out the previous contract high posted in March at 12.59 by nearly a dollar.

Wheat supplies globally are tightening, prices are rallying, and there is no sign of topping action in the wheat.

Questions or Comments

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