Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished steady but mostly lower today as a combination of a lack of a fresh bullish story and advanced corn and soybean planting pushed prices lower.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
We advanced to 72% complete, that’s still behind average, but very good progress.
We went from 22% 2 weeks ago to 72% now, so we planted 50% of the crop in the past 2 weeks.
Although we are catching up to average the U.S. crop is still going to be considered about 2 weeks or more late from a national average.
Weekly Corn Planting Progress
Over the past 13 years you can see our biggest 2 weeks of the year where we plant 18-19% of the U.S. crop would be from late April into the second week of Mya.
This year our two biggest weeks of planting have been 2 weeks later than what would be normal, but we will note that we planted 27% a week ago and planted 23% las week.
So, 50% planted in the last 2 weeks and that’s similar to last year.
U.S. Corn Crop Conditions
USDA has not put together a U.S. corn rating yet, in fact they stated they would not be reporting corn conditions next week either as emergence has not yet reached the level to produce corn crop conditions.
Therefore, we will have to wait until early June for the first crop rating.
This year will likely be similar to 2019 where we did not get the first rating until early June, and we would expect that the initial crop rating will come in around the mid to upper 60s.
Soybean Planting Progress
We are now catching up to average, we are still behind, but we are catching up.
Soybeans had 18% of the crop planted 2 weeks ago, 20% planted last week and we are now 50% planted.
Winter Wheat Crop Conditions
USDA reported winter wheat crop conditions rating at 28% good to excellent, that is a 1% improvement form last week at 28% good to excellent this is the lowest rated crop going back to 1986.
Even though the rains that are falling in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, even Nebraska won’t be a big bonus for the winter wheat crop it should help a little bit.
North Dakota Planting Progress
Grain Market News
U.S Radar
Earlier this afternoon soaking rains were falling from most of Kansas through southern Nebraska also portions of Oklahoma and that rain is moving off tot the north and east suspected to continue to impact portions of eastern Nebraska most of Iowa and then southern Minnesota.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
You can see that rain pushing off to the north and east and then the rains you see in the Dakotas is another system coming in late Friday through Sunday possibly continuing into Monday.
Unfortunately, if this forecast is correct by the time traders get back to work from the Memorial Day weekend, we could have an additional 1-2 inches of rain across most of the Dakota’s and western Minnesota.
That could cause big problems for planting where it is already seriously delayed.
The rains in Nebraska and Iowa even northern Illinois for the most part would be considered favorable but it’s the northern plains and northwestern belt where we are concerned.
Temperature Outlook
For the heart of the belt, above normal temperature sand above normal precipitation in the 6-10 day would be favorable for the crops that have been planted.
Then in the 8–14-day normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
In the northern plain and northwestern belt in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day has cooler weather and a continued amount of precipitation.
July Corn Chart
Corn prices very disappointing on today’s chart, we not only were sharply lower, but we took out the low at 7.69 that was posted about 2.,5 weeks agio.
If there is any good news from a chart perspective it would be that corn turned around and closed at 7.71, about 9 cents off the daily low.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices after testing overhead resistance hit a high of 17.20 yesterday but we closed lower yesterday, and we did see follow through to the downside today.
We did get some mixed news; we made a new low for the move early today but then turned around and closed higher.
The overall trend in soybeans is still up even though today’s low was very disappointing early in the day.
Soybeans have initial chart support around our 20- and 40-day moving average between 16.50-16.60 with overhead resistance in the 17.20-17.40 range.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices after rallying last night and early this morning the charts look very good but then wheat turned around and closed with big losses.
That keeps the overall downtrend still intact, and the technical indicators are pointed downward as well.
Wheat is not bearish but wheat could push down into chart support levels down around the $12 or lower $12 range.
Questions or Comments
