Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today with soybeans higher but corn and wheat still cautious on at least the toss up of a potential grain corridor out of Ukraine.
Grain Market News
Corn Weekly Export Sales
Corn sales came in at a 152 thousand tons, that’s a marketing year low and a little below the level needed tor each USDA export forecast.
This is the first time going back to the first of March that we have a had a weekly sales number below the level needed.
Soybean Weekly Export Sales
Soybean exports sales came in at a marketing year low of 277 but still remain above last year and well above the level needed to reach USDA forecast.
The level needed is negative because we have already exceeded USDA sales total with the amount of soybean exports that we have sold to this date.
Wheat Weekly Export Sales
Wheat marketing year ends in about 5 days. Nonetheless there was a net negative of 2000 tons but also focus now going forward will be on the new crop sales and shipments.
The bottom line is corn, soybean, and wheat sales were all disappointing and contributed to the weak start we saw this morning.
Grain Market News
U.S. Radar
North Dakota and adjacent areas of neighboring states are experiencing a dry day and there is talk that some farmers are trying very slowly to get some planting is done.
Scattered showers are going to keep the planting slow in the central and eastern belt, but a lot of the planting has been completed in those areas.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
The northern plains and far northwestern belt have been mostly dry, there has been some scattered showers, and this could certainly help in areas like North Dakota, but they need a lot more drying to get planting rolling.
Most of the planting has been completed from southern Minnesota, southern South Dakota, through Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and into northern Illinois.
This area that saw some rains, that rain was likely very welcome by most farmers.
In southern portions of the eastern belt down into areas of the Delta, this is another area of concern that may be experiencing some more significant delays.
30-Day Precipitation % of Normal
Anything in the dark blue or purple is 3-4x the normal level or more and these are going to be the areas that we may see some prevented plant acres.
Portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Missouri and Arkansas could see some prevented plant areas also.
In the heart of the belt, other than maybe isolated prevent plant areas, we believe that most of the acres are already planted in this part.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Our 7-day forecast shows additional rain form 1-2 inches across North Dakota and adjacent areas of other states.
This area is our biggest concern at this time.
Soil Moisture Anomaly Change
We are looking at a lot of rain and additional soil moisture surplus in the far northern plains while the central, eastern and southern belt looks like it could be drying out in the next 2 weeks.
The warmer, dryer conditions in the central and eastern belt shouldn’t be a problem unless it becomes prolonged.
July Corn Chart
Corn prices are in a downtrend trend from a short-term perspective, we did close lower today although it was an inside day.
The short-term trend is down, the technical indicators are still pointed downward, the long term is still and uptrend.
The next level of chart support if we don’t get friendly news would be the 7.44 level.
If the market can stabilize and find some friendly news, then overhead resistance comes into play where all the major moving averages and our short-term downtrend come into play at 7.75-7.90 level.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices were very impressive today exploding to the upside and challenging contract highs.
The contract highs were posted at 17.41, today’s high at 17.37 was just 4 cents shy of the contract high.
The long-term trend for bean sis up, the intermediate trend is sideways, but the short-term trend has turned up0 now as well.
Technical indicators just barely into the overbought range with no sign of topping action.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are in a short-term downtrend, but they have found support at least so far at the uptrend line.
Even though we saw the wheat market trade higher during the day, prices did slip back and that keeps the technical indicators pointed downward.
Wheat was not able to follow through with a sharply higher close today
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