Grain prices finished mixed to mostly lower today as the outside market pressure pulled the grains lower despite a hot/dry forecast.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt has had some precipitation, most crops are in good shape, and crop ratings should be strong from corn this afternoon.
We should be close to last week’s corn rating with the initial soybean rating coming out later this afternoon.
30-Day Precipitation % of Normal
The areas in tan or brown are the areas that would be the first to experience crop stress if we don’t start to see some better precipitation.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Over the next 7 days we have some precipitation moving into southern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, through Wisconsin, and Michigan.
That rain does extend into portions of Ohio but much of Illinois and Missouri could remain dry as well as the Delta and the southern and southwestern plains.
Soil Moisture Change
Almost the entire US corn and bean belt will see soil moisture decline over the next 7 days.
It’s a combination of moth heat and dryness that will start to deplete soil moisture.
Soil Moisture Anomaly
Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt including the heart of the belt is expecting significant soil moisture declines over the next few weeks.
Above normal temperatures for the entire U.S. corn and bean belt over the next two weeks with less than normal moisture, especially in the south and southeast in the 6-10 day and that continues in the eastern belt and the Delta in the 8-14 day.
One area that may experience good conditions would be the northern plains where precipitation could remain somewhat close to normal.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks
Stocks are above what was projected last year, we had expected stocks to be declining as we move through the marketing year on good exports.
Exports have been somewhat disappointing, so USDA lowered exports by 50 million bushels.
U.S. Soybeans Monthly Ending Stocks
Soybeans have been declining consistently over the last 5 months, U.S. stocks now projected at 206.
A year ago, at this time we were projected to be lower, but our ending stocks last year ended up at 256 due to rationing.
U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks
The crop year ending at the end of May; therefore, we see very little changes.
Next year’s stocks are projected a little above 600, this year ended around 655.
Corn Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspections were disappointing at 47 million bushels, we need 61 million bushels to reach USDA export forecast.
We do think that the exports will improve and well see some good numbers over time.
Soybean Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean inspections jumped nicely from last week up to 22 million bushels, that’s a little below the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.
We should see some very good exports at or above the current forecast with South America virtually sold out on their old crop supply.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices overnight rallied posting a new high for the move up to 7.40.
During the morning hours we then collapsed trading sharply lower and then prices rebounded closing about the middle of the daily range.
We broke through our down trend line and our 10-day moving average, the technical indicators look good.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices down sharply today after posting highs last week at 16.89, very close to the contract highs at 16.91.
We’ve now seen a pullback and today’s correction comes right down to our 40-day moving average.
If that doesn’t hold, we could see prices down toward the $16 level.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices continue to have market unable to go to the upside, but we continue to find support at the uptrend that’s in place from January.
The chart is showing signs of some bottoming action, technical indicators also showing signs of bottoming action.
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