Today’s Prices
Grain markets relatively quiet but a little bit lower at today’s close.
Grain Market News
Soybean Crush Margin
July board margins are relatively low at 82 cents per bushels, but crushers have already switched to using September boards.
September board margins are a 1.27 per bushel, new crop board margins on the November board at a 1.54 per bushel.
NOPA Soybean Crush
The NOPA crush number came in at a record large for the month of May at 171.1 bushels.
Last year we had very low crush numbers in June, July, and August.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Production was very good at 1.06 million barrels per day last week which is above the level needed to reach the current corn use estimate.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Stocks declined so that was also good news.
Larger ethanol production, smaller ethanol stocks which are both positive news for the ethanol industry and the corn market.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 7 days we have seen an adequate amount of precipitation across the central U.S. corn and bean belt.
Generally, a half to an inch and a half of rain with a few areas with more or less.
We are starting to see some dry pockets develop. This is not a problem yet, but if it remains hot and dry it could.
Soil Moisture
Yellow, oranges, and res are below normal, greens are above normal soil moisture.
Most of the heart of the belt are about normal for soil moisture rankings at this time.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
There are some rains wrapping up in Iowa and Illinois today in tonight and then we start to see a dryer pattern develop pin the weekend.
The southern Ohio Valley down into the Delta is expecting very little to no rain.
Soil Moisture Change
Today through June 23rd you can see that soil moisture is expected to decline across virtually the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.
Temperature Outlook
The 6–10-day forecast continues to show above normal temperatures for the entire US bean and bean belt and that continues into the 8-14 day as well.
Below normal precipitation for most of the belt in the 6-10 day and most of the belt in the 8-14 day as well.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices have been stuck in a range for the last 7 days.
The marketplace is waiting to see if the financial markets are stabilized, the market is waiting to see if there is any fresh developments with the war, and the market is waiting to see if the current forecast will in fact verify.
If the forecast improves then the market could push down towards chart support at 6.94.
If it remains hot and dry, then we will likely break out of this range, and we could see prices towards the upper end of the range.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices continue to be stuck in a sideways range from 4 months ago. Within that range we have seen big moves up and down.
The short-term chart is pointed downward as well as the technical, but we are getting close to the oversold level.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are consolidating, similar to corn, wheat prices have been stuck in a sideways range for nearly 2 weeks now.
Keep in mind that global demand is likely going to be very good and we believe that global buyers are going to be very aggressive trying to get their hands on new crop bushels in the US as well as Europe and the Black Sea region on these winter wheat bushels.
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