Closing Market Comments July 5, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets sharply lower across the board, partially on weather but a bigger piece of the excelling may be due to sharply lower outside markets seen today.

Grain Market News

3-Day Observed Precipitation

We had some good rains over the 3-day weekend in the northern plains and northern portions of the corn and bean belt.

Portions of the central belt form southern Iowa and northern Missouri, true southern portions of the eastern belt, a good share of the delta, and portions of the plains all missed out on the weekend rains.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

If we add the rain from this weekend to the past 7 days, we can see areas that got good rain like South Dakota, southern southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and in portions of the Great Lakes region.

Portions of the central belt, portions of the delta, the southern plains, and isolated areas within the northwest all missed out.

Today’s Conditions

Temperatures are still warm to hot with low 90s across the central belt, mid to upper 90s across the southern belt, but we do have an additional cool front coming in.

Temperatures in North and South Dakota are in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Those additional rains that were forecast are shown in today’s 7 day forecast where much of the north belt and eastern belt are expecting a good shot of rain as well as North Dakota and the far Northern Plains.

Unfortunately portions of the Delta, central southern plains, and even the southwestern belt could miss out but if the rain falls as the forecast shows it will continue to shrink the dry areas.

Temperature Outlook

The 6–10-day forecast is hot but mostly to the deep south and we see some moderation in the 8-14 day with average to above average temperatures.

As the ridge sinks down to the southern US as you can see in the temperatures it also pulls the dry area to the southern US.

Meaning that we could see something closer to normal for precipitation in the corn and bean belt over the next couple of weeks.

The bottom line is that we are still seeing crop stress in the areas that have missed rain, but the forecast looks good with additional rain in the forecast.

Grain Market News

Dow Jones

Today we took out last week’s lows so that was seen as being negative earlier in the day although the DOW has been bouncing back here late in the day.

Crude Oil

The crude oil market did see a significant move after being higher in the early morning trade, crude oil then took out the lows from about a week and a half ago and that set off aggressive liquidation in the energy market.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn exports were disappointing at 26.6 million bushels, that’s less than half the level needed.

Export inspections added to the overall negative attitude today.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean exports were also disappointing at 13 million bushels, less than half the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

We have some bearish news from the outside markets, somewhat in the weather, and the export inspections all keying up to create the large losses we had seen today.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices continue what’s a virtual freefall in prices over the last couple of weeks.

Today’s low at 5.82, the lowest price going back towards the 1st of the yea, we are now well below the prices where we were at prior to Russia’s invasion on Ukraine.  

Prices are now back to a consolidation area that we saw later last year and earlier this year. This area should provide very solid end user buying and could provide now market support as we move forward.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices down sharply, prices now down close to a consolidation we had seen in January/February which should provide good end user buying over the next few weeks.  

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also sharply lower and in a free fall over the last couple of weeks.

Although technical indicators are extremely oversold there is no sign yet of bottoming action.

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