Closing Market Comments July 6, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today, but corn and soybeans were able to close higher on declining crop condition ratings from USDA weekly report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Crop Condition

You can see the steady decline that we’ve seen over the past 3-4 weeks with this week’s rating at 64% now below average for this time of year.

The good news for US farmers is that the recent rains and the rain the forecast over the next 2-3 days should allow conditions to improve slightly next week.

Corn- Change in G/E

There were three states that improved which were North Dakota, Minnesota, and Michigan all in the far north.

A few states held steady, but most states seen a decline with states in the Delta region seeing major declines as well as portions of the eastern belt.

U.S. Soybean Crop Condition

Conditions dropped another 2% and rather than being rated in the upper end of the range like we were early in the growing season crop conditions now more in the middle of the typical trading range for this time of year.

Soybean conditions now 63% good to excellent compared to 59% a year ago.

Soybeans- Change in G/E

Again North Dakota and Minnesota were the two highest upside states while the Delta seen declines and in the eastern belt.

Grain Market News

24-Hour Observed Precipitation

Over the past 24 hours we see some very good rain across the northern portion of the belt.

That’s above where we have a high-pressure ridge that’s providing somewhat of a dome preventing moisture in the south and southwest but allowing thunderstorms to ride up and over that ridge giving some very good rain to the far northern belt.

24-Hour Severe Weather Reports

High wind reported scattered from South Dakota, Iowa, clipping southwest Minnesota, and northeast Nebraska.

Heavy rains on the Wisconsin and Illinois border, northeast Indiana, and some isolated areas in southern Minnesota and southern Nebraska.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The rain that fell in the overnight hours is visible here and when we add that to the previous 6 days, we have very good rain across much of the northern and central belt.

Portions of central and southern Illinois, southern Indiana have missed out on the rain. Much of the Delta and extending into the central and southern plains have missed out as well.

Today’s Conditions

We are getting some scattered rain above that high pressure ridge or dome down in the central and southern states.

Today’s highs are also forecast to be in the 100s from portions of the Delta, westward into the central and southern plains.

As you can see from this map most of the 90s have now been eliminated from the central and northern belt.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The Delta, southwestern belt, and central/southern plains are still suffering from dry and hot conditions.

Temperature Outlook

As the ridge moves further to the south and the west it does tell us that the forecast is calling for about normal temperatures in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt form the 6-14th day.

Normal temperatures but below normal precipitation in the forecast.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices made a new low for the move today, that was this morning when crude oil was seeing some significant losses.

December corn moved down to 5.66 per bushel but corn reversed and closed higher on the day at 5.85, that’s 19 cents above the daily low.

Not a key reversal since we didn’t take out yesterday’s high, but it was a reversal.

It may be the first small hint that this market is finding some bottoming action.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also posted a new low for the move today, by just a penny or so down to 13.02 and then turned around and closed at 13.22.

We need to see some follow through if we are going to start to see some bottoming action on the chart or technical indicators.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also made a new low for the move today down to 8.32.

They did bounce and closed at 8.51, 19 cents off the daily low, but this wheat market does need to see a couple of higher trading days in order to turn the chart or technical.

Following the recent $5 plus break in prices and technical indicators pegged at 0, we do not want to be sellers in wheat.

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