Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished mixed today as we got mixed news, negative information regarding the inflation rate at 9.1% but the weather looks threatening.
Grain Market News
U.S. Inflation Rate
9.1% inflation as of June 2022 is the highest going back to November of 1981.
U.S. Corn Crop Condition
USDA corn crop condition ratings held steady; most were expecting that to increase but it held steady which was seen as a lightly supportive feature.
Our good to excellent rating at 64% good to excellent is now 1% below the year ago rating.
Corn- Change in G/E
This shows that this week we had 7 states improve and 9 states decline.
Our two biggest states Iowa and Illinois both seen a big increase, but the Delta states seen a decline.
U.S. Soybean Crop Conditions
The soybean crop declined by 1% in the good to excellent category, but we were expecting a small increase.
So, this was seen as slightly positive, and the current condition is 63% good to excellent but that is above last year’s rating of 59%.
If the forecast is correct, we’ll go from crop conditions for a middle range to going to a lower range as we move through July.
Soybeans Change in G/E
This current week ending on July 10th we saw 7 states increase in rating, 1 hold steady, and 10 states decline.
Again, the Delta region, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, even Missouri seen significant losses in crop condition ratings.
Even Minnesota, Michigan, South Dakota, Indiana seen their conditions slip last week.
Grain Market News
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast does show that rain in the eastern belt but nothing exceptionally heavy but nonetheless they should get something.
But the central and western belt is expecting to receive very little to no precipitation.
In fact, Lincoln, Nebraska is expecting temperatures from 90-96 for the next 10 consecutive days with little or no rain fall.
Soil Moisture Change
Even with the rains in the eastern belt soil moisture is likely to decline with temperatures above normal and even though they get some rain keeping in mind the eastern belt should be getting an inch per week.
But in the central and western belt substantial soil moisture decline could be recorded over the next week.
Temperature Outlook
The forecast shows expanding heat in almost all the U.S. corn and bean belt and relatively dry conditions for the bulk of the belt.
The exception would be in the very far eastern belt could get somewhat of a break.
If this forecast is accurate, we are going to soil moisture decline, crop conditions slipping lower, and the talk of lower yields will increase.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production was disappointing at 1.005 million barrels per day produced last week.
That was down significantly from where we were the previous month and a half.
We would like to see that number bouncing up in the weeks to come.
Our current year to date ethanol production is up 6.8% from a year ago.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Stocks are up slightly form last week, so that was also somewhat disappointing.
That prevented corn from seeing larger gains in today’s trade.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices made a new low for this move at 5.76 on the December chart, so that’s still above the lows from last week at 5.66. We closed at 5.95, so we closed 19 cents off the daily low.
That doesn’t do much for the chart, but we are hoping following todays close we can start to see the market moving higher.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices made a new low for this move at 13.15 but it did not take out the low from last week at 13.02.
We turned around and closed at 13.49, 33 cents off the daily low.
Again, today’s chart does not look that good but the fact that we closed higher, and today’s low did not take out last weeks gives us some hope.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices made a new low at 8.53 but did not take out last weeks low.
The difference in wheat is it did not close higher today; it appears to have carved out a range with 8.32 being chart support and 9.98 being overhead resistance.
We are currently trading much closer to the lower end of that range.
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