Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished mixed today similar to what we’ve seen the last 3 days of mixed back and forth trade.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
24-Hour Observed Precipitation
Looking at the last 24 hours you can see some rain from the red river valley of the north through Wisconsin, northeast Iowa, and northern Illinois.
That would be considered somewhat bearish, and these rains were better than expected.
Virtually no rain fell in the Delta and no rain for the most part in the U.S. plain states.
High Temperatures
Mostly 80s in the eastern belt that’s favorable, but extreme heat well into the 100s in most of the plain states and that’s bullish.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 7 days we’ve seen rain across the far northern plains and also some rain across eastern Iowa, portions of Illinois, and southern Indiana.
At the same time, we haven’t seen any rain over the last 7 days in portions of the northwestern belt, northern plains, very little to no rain in the delta, and a large portion of central and southern plains is also seeing dry pockets.
Extreme Heat Continues
Current conditions
Conditions show the mixed news with rains in the eastern belt while virtually no rain falling in the southwestern and western belt.
Temperatures are favorable in the eastern belt with 80s while 90s and 100s in the plains into the delta.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast shows very good rains, 1-2 inches of rain in the eastern belt, that could certainly be beneficial in those areas.
Unfortunately, no rain for the Delta, central and southern plains, and no rain for the northwestern belt over the next 7 days.
Temperature Outlook
The forecast still looks warm to even hot for the entire U.S. corn and bean belt for the 6-10 and the 8-14 day.
Dryer than normal conditions for most of the belt in the 6-10 and 8-14 day.
We could see improvement in the east but continued deterioration in the southern and southwestern portions.
Corn Production
1/3 of the belts could see extreme conditions, 1/3 could see favorable conditions, and 1/3 could be going back and forth between the favorable and extreme conditions.
Soybean Production
A little over the 1/3 could be in trouble while the eastern belt could be in good shape.
If crop conditions do in fact decline as we move through the late July and possibly into August that is going to result in analysts lowering their yield estimates.
Weather is going to determine not only the crop conditions but the price direction going forward.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices have been on a rollercoaster with late June having a sharp break, then nearly a dollar rally with a high at 6.58, then into Tuesday and Wednesday morning it collapsed, since then we have started to rebound again.
Mixed news for both the bulls and the bears, bulls will claim that we are showing some bottoming action and that we did not take out last week’s low with the technical pointing higher, but the bears will point out the overall trend is a downtrend off the highs posted during May.
The December corn chart has overhead at 6.58 and chart support at 5.66, and weather will determine whether we work higher or lower in that range.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices similar to corn, they fell sharply in late June into July, then rallied sharply into Sunday night and Monday morning with the high at 14.38, then fell sharply and stabilized the last couple of days.
Bulls will claim that this week’s low did not take out last week’s low while the bears are claiming we are in a downtrend.
September KC Wheat Chart
The wheat market closed poorly and made new lows for the move at 8.20.
The good news is we turned around and closed at 8.37, 17 cents off the daily low.
Nearby support would be today’s low at 8.20 with overhead resistance very close to the $10 range.
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