Closing Market Comments July 19, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished lower today as the forecast isn’t necessarily favorable, but it is less threatening than yesterday.  

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Crop Condition

Corn crop conditions are steady, 64 good to excellent for the third week in a row.

For mid-July we are at or slightly below average, so yield is at or below average.

At 64% good to excellent we are actually 1% below last year when we were 65%, you can see the red line last year just above this year’s yellow line.

If the forecast is correct, we believe conditions will likely drop a few percentages next week and this will start to send crop conditions below average and maybe signal below average yields.

Corn- Change in G/E

6 states improved included Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Nebraska at the top.

9 states show declines with Pennsylvania, Kansas, South Dakota, and Missouri at the bottom.

U.S. Soybean Crop Condition

Soybean crop ratings fell 1% from 62 to 61% good to excellent.

We are still 1% above last year which was rated at 60% good to excellent.

We are slightly below average for this time of year indicating that yields could be slightly below average as well.

We do anticipate that conditions will drop a couple percentages next week based on this week’s heat and dryness.  

Soybean- Change in G/E

Only 2 states improved which were North Carolina and Arkansas.

Our top producing states Iowa and Illinois down 1, Minnesota the third largest soybean producer down 1 as well.

Mississippi down 10, North Dakota down 6, Louisiana down 6 and so on made it surprising that the U.S. rating only fell 1.

But the bottom line is that USDA did lower the crop rating by 1% down to 61%.

U.S. Soil Moisture

Soil moisture declined from 35% short to very short last week to 38.8% short to very short this week.

A decline in soil moisture with most of that in the central belt state and in the plain states.

The eastern corn belt actually saw many states improve including Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan.

If the forecast is correct the combination of heat and dryness will actually cause our soil moisture to decline about 10% points from 38-39 down to 48-49 next week.

U.S. Topsoil Moisture

Next week we could be 49-50% short to very short as heat and dryness this week has caused significant soil moisture loss.

This will likely lead to crop conditions falling as well.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures were 100s across most of the U.S. plain states, that’s where crops are likely going down rapidly but keep in mind that’s not the heart of the belt.

The eastern belt has seen good rains recently and they had temperatures yesterday mostly in the 80s.

It’s the central belt like eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, portions of Iowa, Missouri that are in that middle third that could go either way depending on weather over the next few weeks.

Current Conditions

As of 1:30 this afternoon there was no rain falling across the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt with temperatures in the plains in the 100s and then 90s expected to the east of that.

The eastern corn belt is in good shape, plains very disappointing, and the central third that is going to be the determining factor whether more crops see losses or start to improve.

Saturday’s High Temperatures

Even if the weather does improve next week, we still have some pretty significant heat and dryness to get through this week.

This map shows the high temperatures that are forecasted for this coming Saturday July 23rd.

You can see 100s from the Delta region thought the central and southern plains, 90s across the southern belt, and 80s across the far north and far eastern belt.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Even though we can see some rains in the northern and eastern portion of the belt, little or no rain is expected in the southern belt, Delta, or the plains from the northern plains all the way through the southern plains.

This combination of heat and dryness is the reason why the crop conditions will likely decline and possibly a significant decline next week.

Temperature Outlook

Above normal temperatures for the entire U.S. corn and bean belt including the heart in the 6-10 and the 8–14-day forecast.

It’s the improved moisture that has the trade negative today with the eastern belt seeing above normal precipitation in the 6-10 day.

That’s a significant improvement and still looking for normal to above normal in the far eastern belt in the 8-14 day.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices very disappointing today after yesterday having a big day and a breakout to the upside today’s prices breaking out to the downside as we continue to see very volatile trade.

Down sharp in late June, up sharply prior to the 4th of July, down sharp, then up a few days, and now down.

We expect more of this volatile trade with a range for the most part expected to be in the 5.60 range to the 6.60 range.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also extremely volatile, down sharply mid-June, up sharp, down sharp in late June, up, and then down.

We expect soybeans to spend most of the time in the near term between $13 at chart support and about $14.40 where we have overhead resistance.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices is seeing volatility as well with lots of up and downs and trying to bounce up today but corn and beans holding wheat back.

We expect wheat to continue finding support in the 8.20-8.30 range with overhead resistance around $10.

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