Last year 2021 in the black dash line shows where USDA was estimating the yield, it dropped the yield in August but then bounced it back up and ended up at 177 at year end.
Ag resource by utilizing crop condition indexes which combine good, excellent, fair, poor, and very poor.
You can see that last year their condition, which is shown in the black line with white dots, very well tracked the USDA and final yield.
Based on that data, USDA yield this year is at 177 and the current crop condition index would put the crop at 175.3.
Ag resource believe that its going to be difficult for this year’s yield to reach last years record of 177.
Keep in mind if condition ratings fall next as we expect their yield model will fall as well.