Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today with wheat the downside leader on an agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine for shipping grain.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
Grain Market News
30-Day Observed Precipitation
Beginning with past weather, over the past 30 days this is the observed precipitation.
Normal is 4-5 inches for a month, so it should be brown, and we do see some pockets where we saw normal to even above normal rain over the past 30 days.
These are the areas that are probably sitting pretty good when it comes to the current soil moisture and crop conditions.
Anything in green is less than 2 inches, less than half of normal, and we also see numerous pockets where they have seen less than normal rain.
The biggest area that has missed out on the rain is down in the southern plains into the Delta.
30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal
You can see those pockets of above normal rain in the past 30 days.
We also see some large areas where we see below normal precipitation and anything in tan is less than half of normal.
So, we have some significant areas that need to get some rain to prevent crop stress and the potential for yield loss.
U.S. Drought Monitor
The drought monitor reflects the rain we have gotten, and it shows we have dryness in portions of Indiana, eastern Illinois, southern Minnesota, Nebraska, and a large area in the southern plains into the delta.
Drought Monitor Class Change
Anything in green is where soil moisture and drought has improved, anything in yellow or tan is where the drought has gotten worse.
Again, the easiest to identify is the significant drought development in the southern plains into the delta region.
As we move into the corn belt, we can see that there have been some areas in green where drought has improved, but we also see areas in yellow where drought has increased.
More mixed results in this heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
We haven’t seen much rain this week, in fact most of the central U.S. corn and bean belt has been dry this week.
Yes, there has been some isolated showers from northeast Indiana, eastern Ohio, and then some scattered showers in portions of central western Nebraska, southern Minnesota, and eastern South Dakota.
High Temperatures
The southern and western plains down into the Delta region seeing temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s.
That continues to present significant or even major crop stress in those areas.
The heart of the US corn and bean belt has not seen the temperatures as extreme, temperatures yesterday mostly in the upper 80s low 90s.
If you have adequate soil moisture you are probably doing fine but if you are dry, you are probably seeing crop stress.
Current Conditions
Our current weather also includes a radar that is clear for the most part for the heart of the US corn and bean belt.
Temperatures as of noon mostly in the mid-80s in the heart, 90s down to the south, but keep in mind add another 6-7 degrees to this for the daily highs.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Precipitation for the next 7 days, as you can see the eastern belt expecting 1-2 inches of rain isolated and possibly even more.
Out in the central belt, generally a quarter to 3 quarters with isolated 1-inch totals and out in the plains generally a quarter to a half of an inch.
Some areas a little less and some a little more.
Temperature Outlook
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast show temperatures near normal in the 6-10 day with cooler to the north and warmer to the south. While everyone starts to get warmer in the second week of the forecast.
Precipitation looks to be above normal based on this national weather service map in the 6-10 day and normal to above normal in the 8-14 day.
If this forecast verifies, we will call this nonthreatening.
Monthly Temperature Outlook
This map, temperatures for August looks to be above normal in the entire U.S. corn and bean belt with precipitation below normal for the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.
This is a long term forecast and therefore could see many changes but as of yesterday the national weather service is looking for a return to warmer and dryer conditions in August.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
The U.S. drought monitor is looking for expanding drought conditions in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.
Specifically, west of the Mississippi river with expanding drought in southern Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas.
This is for the July 21st-October 21st, but it includes those warmer, dryer conditions in August.
December Corn Chart
The corn chart had a very disappointing day, we came down not only testing the lows from almost 3 weeks ago but made a new low at 5.61.
That does keep the overall downtrend intact despite the fact that we have had a couple of sharp rallies, one 2 weeks ago and one last week.
Chart watchers are probably eying up an extended period of consolidation between about 5.40-5.65 and we are very close to that level.
So even though we are in a downtrend we are not looking for significant downsides from this level.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also very disappointing making a new low for the move down to 12.88.
The good news in soybeans is they turned around and closed at 13.15 that’s 27 cents above the daily low.
That was enough to start hooking our technical, but if you look technical indicators are down and up repeatedly.
Todays move to 12.88 is a top of a consolidation area that we saw that goes back many months from about the 12.25-13 level.
That is the target that many chart watchers are probably analyzing if we can get down a little lower on the current break.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have pushed down to new lows as well.
Corn, beans, and wheat all making new lows today keeping the overall downtrend intact.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and we are significantly below the prices even prior to when Russia invaded Ukraine.
We also have a consolidation area that took place over about 4 months from 7.55-8.66 and we are now in that area.
Even though there is no sign of bottoming action this is no place to making sales in wheat.
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