Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished higher today with outside markets supportive. Questions as to whether Russia will honor their shipping agreement and a more threatening forecast next week.
Grain Market News
High Temperatures 7-22
Friday, we had temperatures from the Kansas Nebraska border all the way down into the Delta in and around 100 degrees or more.
High Temperatures 7-23
Saturday the 100s pushed further into Nebraska all the way down to the Gulf coast, and eastward towards the Delta and towards St. Louis.
High Temperatures 7-24
Sunday more 100s in central Kansas, southward to the border, and eastward towards the delta and St Louis.
We believe the crops that declined in this area will be able to more than offset any improvements we see in the eastern belt.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
We also see dryness over most of the plains into the Delta region although we did get a stripe of rain from eastern Colorado through portions of Kansas and into Missouri.
That didn’t fall until last night, prior to that it was a week of extremely dry and hot conditions.
Southern Iowa, northern Missouri, into Wester Illinois, southwest Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, and eastern Nebraska missed out on the rain.
We do believe losses in many areas will be able to offset gains in crop conditions in other area.
Current Conditions
The heat has now been pushed into Oklahoma, Texas, and into Arkansas with much cooler weather in the northern and western belt now.
Along with that cooler weather are some scattered showers, nothing heavy, just some light rain across most areas.
There may be some heavier totals but mostly light rain.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
There are better rains this week as the cold front drapes across the southern, eastern belt and plains.
From the northern 2/3 of Nebraska and most of Iowa very little rain is expected with the exception of some moderate rains in portions of central and southern Minnesota.
Precipitation Forecasts
The forecasts show much lighter rains on the northern half this week and then mostly dry across the entire belt next week.
Temperature Outlook
We can see that heat and dryness developing in the 6-10 and 8-14 day.
Temperatures look to be warming in the western belt in the 6-10 day and then the entire belt in the 8–14-day forecast.
We also see the dryness reappear in the northwestern belt in the 6-10 and the western half of the belt in the 8-14.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Over the last 6 weeks we’ve seen consistently disappointing exports.
We need to see those exports increase quickly over the next 5 weeks if we are going to reach the USDA current estimate.
Yield is still a bigger factor than overall exports but nonetheless exports have been disappointing.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybeans have also been disappointing over the last 6 weeks or so.
The same thing is true here, 1 bushel per acre of yield loss is equal to about 90 million bushels so yield is much more important than exports.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices bounced nicely off Fridays low at 5.61, in fact todays closet 5.83 is 22 cents of Fridays low.
That was enough to turn the technical indicators.
If we could see this market trade higher over the next day or two that could turn the chart and trigger some short covering by trading systems that have gone short over the past couple of weeks.
Our first area of major overhead resistance is at 6.23, that’s the spike high that we left one week ago.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also bouncing nicely today, last Friday beans closed higher with follow through today has the technical looking good as well.
The next level of overhead resistance is the high posted last week on Monday and that low corresponds to a spike low that was left around the 1st of April at $13.94.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices bounced a little today, not very impressive, but we continue to see this market trying to show signs of consolidating.
We will see if this market can test initial overhead resistance just shy of $9 If we can get some friendly news over the next few days.
Questions or Comments
