Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished higher to sharply higher for the second day in a row as next week’s forecast is calling for the possibility of some extreme heat in the western belt and that could harm crops.
Grain Market News
Corn Crop Conditions
We are below last year in red and below the green line from two years ago.
With crop conditions falling, private analysts are going to be lowering their yield estimates slightly as U.S. corn crop has seen a couple steady weeks but generally has been declining the past two months.
Corn Change in G/E
This week a 3% drop down to 61% good to excellent took place with the eastern belt improving.
Ohio up 6, Wisconsin up 2, Illinois and Indiana up 1.
But declines in the central and western belt pretty much across the board easily overtook the improved conditions
Soybean Crop Conditions
Soybean conditions have dropped every week since USDA began their crop condition report a couple months ago.
We are still 1% ahead of last year’s rating at this time but we are way below the ratings from two years ago.
Crop conditions may be able to stabilize next week because of the rains and cooler temperatures this week.
But if next week’s forecast is correct with extreme heat and dryness then we will start to trend lower again.
Soybeans Change in G/E
Soybeans declined 3% this week because in the eastern belt having Ohio, North Carolina, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Indiana improving but down in the Delta we had a major lowering.
Grain Market News
High Temperatures
Yesterday’s high temperatures you can see extreme heat in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and then down into the delta.
Around that ridge, the ridge riding storm falling from eastern Colorado through southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Missouri, into southern Illinois.
This area saw some good rains and those are ridge riding thunderstorms.
24-Hour Observed Precipitation
You can see our high-pressure ridge form southern Kanas down through the delta, Oklahoma, into Texas and ridge riding rain and thunderstorms falling just north of the high-pressure ridge.
In fact, some areas in central Missouri and south of St. Louis saw 6-8 inches of rain or more over the last 24 hours.
30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal
Looking at precipitation over the past 30 days you can see those rains from northern Kansas, north and central Missouri, through southern Illinois.
Those areas have gotten good rains and will be able to withstand some heat and dryness. Same thing is true from southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, through northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and into Ohio.
But a large area in central Minnesota, southern Minnesota, much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska have missed out on the rain as well as a large area in the southern plain into the Delta.
These areas that we are highlighting that will be the first to see stress over the next week if we do get high temperatures.
Current Conditions
As of today, that ridge is still southern Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, into the delta region and we are still seeing some rains on the right side of the screen from northern Kansas into central Missouri and the southern portion of the east end belt.
The heart of the belt is okay for now with temperatures today mostly in the 70s low 80s and not much rain in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The 7-day precipitation shows very little to no rain in the northern half of the belt with additional solid rains in the southern portions of the belt.
Temperature Outlook
Above to much above normal temperature across the belt in the 6-10 day especially in the northwestern belt and northern plains.
Then a high-pressure ridge will park itself right in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt in the second week of the forecast.
We don’t know if this will verify but as of today that would cause dry conditions initially in the plain states into the western belt but then across the entire belt in the second week.
European Model High Temps
The European model, anything in the light pink is a hundred degrees for above.
So, the European model is looking at mid to upper 90s across almost the entire belt with a lot of 100s from eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, portions of Missouri, and Illinois.
That is in addition to extreme heat in the southern plains.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices gapped higher last night on crop conditions falling by 3% points and then the market closed near the daily highs just above $6.
We are up about 40 cents from where we were at Friday afternoon.
The chart looks good turning higher, technical indicators look good as well, we’ve broken through the 10-day moving average, and now we are challenging the 20-day moving average.
Bottom line is chart and technical look quite good for corn following today’s strong performance.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also gapping higher last night, charts look very good and technical indicators look good as well.
We are getting close to overhead resistance, at least initial overhead resistance at $14, if we can break through that then 14.38 would be the next target.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices sharpy higher today with the charts looking good and technical indicators have turned higher as well.
We are near overhead resistance from a downtrend line and the 20-day moving average.
If we breakthrough that, $10 would be the next target which is over a $1 away.
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