Closing Market Comments July 27, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets had an end resting day of trade.

Grain Market News

Temperature Outlook

The market is concerned due to the weather.

The 6–10-day forecast has above normal temperatures in the corn belt.

Precipitation below normal for Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and then spilling into Missouri and Kansas.

We can see the temperatures intensify a little mor in the 8-14 and we also end up seeing we have below normal amounts of precipitation.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Parts of Kansa, Missouri, southern part s of Illinois, Indiana, into Kentucky is good but some major areas have missed out on precipitation.

As we start to bring the temperatures back up from those areas missing the rain, what will happen to the corn yield?

14-Day Precipitation % of Normal

We have parts of eastern Nebraska, western Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, into southwest Minnesota, and then catching the eastern part of South Dakota that have been dry and are not getting the moisture that they need with water temperatures coming.

Hazards Outlook

As we go into the first days of August is when we are looking at some of the highest degrees of heat and the dryness.

In brown is a rapid onset of grout risk, that’s within Iowa, and parts of south Minnesota and the eastern part of Nebraska.

As we get out to the middle of August, we will start seeing some showers start making their way around the ridge again.

Weekly Ethanol Production

We came in at 1.021 million barrels and we needed 1.072 million barrels.

Year to date we are up 6.5% which takes us back to September.

Looking at the July WASDA report, they had ethanol production which had corn use for ethanol up 6.8%.

If we don’t pick up our pace here in the future WASDA reports, we will end up having to reduce the amount of demand for corn to ethanol.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

We came in at 23.328 million barrels, that would be up 2.6% from where we were last year.

September Corn Chart

Corn traded all the way up today to 6.06.

We did close over this red line which is the 40-day moving average.

Overhead resistance is at 6.06 after that we come to the red line at the 200-day moving average at 6.21, and then we come to the resistance established from a few weeks ago at 6.23.

September Soybean Chart

Soybeans traded above the 200-day moving average and through the downtrend line.

We broke our resistance level at 13.93, so now as we look at where this market would trade from here, we have a resistance at 14.38 or the 40-day moving average at 14.40.  

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat was very volatile as we traded higher breaking through the 40-day average and then reversed back down settling at the 10-day moving average.

Our next chart support would be at 8.32 and then below that would be down at the 8.14.

Questions or Comments