Closing Market Comments August 1, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply lower today as the weather forecast is less threatening than it was Friday combined with lower outside markets, and the 1st cargo of grain shipped out of the Ukrainian port.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The past 7 days we have seen significant rainfall down to the southern portions of the US corn and bean while very little rain fell in the central and northern portions of the belt.

We believe that declines in some areas around the northern and northwestern belt could offset the improvement in crop conditions down south, so therefore we would not be surprised to see conditions about steady.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

The past 2 weeks we can see that again the southern belt has received good rain but there is also an area from central Indiana and central Illinois up through the western and northwestern belt that has received minor amounts of rain.

This is where crop conditions could decline the most quickly if we don’t see better rains soon.

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

From southern Illinois, southern Indiana, portions of the Ohio Valley combined with a stripe of rain from southeast Minnesota northeast Iowa through northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and into Ohio that has seen good rains.

Central Nebraska had a pocket of rain, central South Dakota had a pocket of rain, but we also have seen a number of pockets where rainfall has been much below normal.

Temperature Anomaly

Mot of the belt has been above normal with tremendous heat own to the south.

July saw above normal temperature and mixed precipitation.

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures show 80s in most of the central and eastern belt with 90s in the plains even 100s in the southern plains.

Up in the Pacific northwest where white wheat and Durum wheat are significant temperatures are very hot from 100-108 across much of that region.

Current Conditions

Our current conditions show temperatures mostly in the 80s as of 1:30 with 90s in the western belt and into the plain states.

Very little precipitation is being shown right now but we did have a little rain from eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast calls for decent rain with 3/4 to an inch and a half in much of the eastern belt and a quarter to three quarters in portions of Iowa and the central belt.

The plains from the Canadian border to the Mexican border look to be mostly hot and dry over the next week.

Temperature Outlook

Our 6–10-day forecast continues to look like above normal temperatures and that continues in the 8-14 day for the entire central US corn and bean belt.

Most of the belt looks to have below normal precipitation in the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day.

Temperature Anomaly

If the forecast is correct temperatures will be well above normal in the plains, and slightly above normal in the eastern belt over the next 7 days.

Soil Moisture Anomaly

From today through August 15th, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, into the Ohio Valley could see an improvement in their soil moisture while most of the belt sees soil moisture on the decline.

Grain Market News

September Corn Chart

Corn prices after rallying sharply, down sharply today but the good news is we closed at 6.09 and that was fairly close to the middle of today’s range.

The market currently has overhead resistance at 7.36 with initial chart support at the 5.80-5.85 level.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also rallied every day last week, in fact they rallied 6 days in a row.

Today we saw a sharp correction, but we are still trading above $14 as we closed at 14.06 today.

We currently have overhead resistance at $14.89 and chart support in a gap area around the $13.50 level.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are shooing some bottoming action, it looks like we could be developing a U shape bottom in the wheat market, and this would be logical given the fact we are wrapping up the winter harvest.

Wheat has support at last weeks low at 8.14, overhead resistance around the $10 level, and today we closed at 8.66.


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