Closing Market Comments August 9, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices higher across the board today as lower crop condition ratings are seen as supportive for grain prices.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

Our corn crop conditions had a full 3% drop, that’s a big drop for one week.

We are now well below the black line which is the 20-year average and well below last year which was 64% good to excellent.

Many in the trade are believing that its going to be difficult for this year’s corn crop to achieve last years yield of 177.

Corn Change in G/E

Corn crop condition changes this week had 5 states improve and that included the eastern corn belt states of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

But we saw 13 states decline, all the plain states from the Canadian border to the Mexican border.

We also had declines in the central belt in Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota.

This was enough to push our U.S. rating percentage to 58%, a 3% drop.

Soybean Crop Conditions

Soybean condition dropped 1% down to 59% goo to excellent. That’s slightly below last year and slightly below the 20-year average.

Soybeans Change in G/E

Soybeans saw 6 states show improvement again in the eastern belt with Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio all seeing improvements.

Some states in the Delta like Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana saw improvements as well.

10 states seen crop conditions decline again the plains with North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas all declining as well as the central plain states.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures 8/8

Cooler temperatures to the north with 70s and 80s, low 90s in the eastern belt like the Ohio valley and down through the delta, with the extreme heat remaining in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and then into western Arkansas.

The heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt has been able to avoid severe heat for the most part over the last few days.

We did see some big heat in Nebraska up to a 100 in eastern Nebraska, but things have now cooled down.

30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

This shows a portion of the western belt Iowa into eastern Nebraska and even portions of west central Illinois have missed the better rains.

The northern plains with North Dakota and South Dakota have seen a drying trend over the last 30 days.

Then of course the southern plains also experiencing dryness.

It’s this dryness combined with heat that has allowed crop conditions to decline enough to offset the favorable conditions further to the east.

Soil Moisture

The lack of rainfall in some areas over the past 30 days has resulted in soil moisture decline.

As of Sunday, soil moisture is well below average in the western belt while average to above average in the eastern belt.

Declines in crop conditions based on lower soil moisture has more than offset good conditions in the east and that results in our crop conditions declining in this week’s report.

Current Conditions

These temperatures as of 1:00pm are mostly 70s in the central and eastern belt but they’ll see temperature around 80 today with 90s out in the plains.

That’s not excessive heat but given the fact that some crops are seeing extremely dry soil moisture temperatures in the 80s and 90s is still too hot causing crop stress.

No precipitation falling in most of the belt except for some scattered showers along the Ohio valley and down into the delta.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7d ay forecast shows almost completely dry conditions for most of the belt.

Even though most of the belt will not have severe heat, temperatures in western Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska are likely to be warm enough to cause additional crop stress.

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 continues to have above normal temperatures in the plains but cooling in the eastern belt.

The 8-14 day shows near normal temperatures for most of the belt for the first time in a while, cooler to the east and warmer to the west.

With the high-pressure ridge pushing further to the west we could have cooler, dryer conditions for most of the U.S. corn and bean belt in the 6-10 and the 8–14 day forecast.

Even though temperatures may not be extreme, the dryness that could be ongoing could cause additional crop stress in the western belt and into the plains.

September Corn Chart

Corn rallied up toward initial overhead resistance around 8.24 where we have a short-term downtrend and the 40 day both coming into pay.

The chart is in a short-term uptrend and the technical indicators are pointed up as well.

The challenge will be if corn prices over the next few days can break through that overhead resistance, that’s about a dime above where we closed today.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also moving higher today making a new high for this move.

The short-term trend has turned upward with overhead resistance initially around 14.60 where our downtrend comes into play, then 14.89.

This would be our target if we can get some friendly news over the next few days.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices continue to show signs of bottoming action, but they have not been able to breakout.

We do expect the wheat market will form a U shape bottom, right now prices are bouncing above and below that line, but wheat has the potential to start working higher over time.

We believe that $10 is a reasonable target for the wheat market.

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