Closing Market Comments August 16, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished lower for the second day in a row wit additional rain falling in some of the driest areas of the western corn belt.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Looking at yesterday’s high temperatures you can see the extreme heat down in the central and southern plains.

Around this high-pressure ridge is where the rain and thunderstorms were falling yesterday from eastern Nebraska, South Dakota, western and northwestern Iowa, and then over night to today eastern Missouri working its way down into the Delta.

Its very easy to see on a map where those ridge riding storms have been continuing to fall.

Outside of the heat in the central and southern plains the corn and bean belt are mostly in the 70s with a few low 80s in the east and a few 60s in the west.

2-Day Observed Precipitation

This map also shows where that high pressure ridge is and around that ridge of high pressure is where the rain and storms are falling.

These rains from southern and southeastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, through Missouri, and western southwestern Iowa is almost a bullseye hitting at some of the driest areas.

30-Day Precipitation Forecast- % of Normal

This is from last Friday, before the rain fell, so from southeast South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, through much of western and southern Iowa, that’s the area that was extremely dry and this is almost exactly the area that is getting the rain.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Additional rains are forecast for the plains and additional rains for the delta as well.

In fact, the red river valley of the north with eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota could get some rain, so overall the forecast looks quite favorable.

If you are in an area of Nebraska that missed out on the recent rain you might think our comments are not relevant, but most of the belt should be in good shape following the rains this week.

Temperature Outlook

Temperatures look to be slightly below normal in the heart of the belt in the 6-10 and continuing into the 8-14 day.

Precipitation about average in the central belt, wetter to the south, dryer to the north, and that continues in the 8–14-day forecast. 

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

Corn crop conditions is down 1% from last week down to 57% good to excellent. That’s 5% below last years rating.

It’s worth noting that the corn crop condition is below the 20-year average.

Corn Change in G/E

Minor states like Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina seen conditions improve and then some larger states like Minnesota and Indian saw improvements.

Offsetting that was the nation’s largest state Iowa down 7, second largest states Illinois down 2, but we also saw Kansas, Kentucky, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Missouri decline.

Soybean Crop Condition

Soybean conditions dropped by 1% going to 58% good to excellent which compares to 57% last year.

We are slightly below the 20-year average.

Soybean Change in G/E

Many locations in the east like Indiana, Ohio improved, the delta improved, Arkansas, Tennessee while we see declines in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Kansas.

NOPA Soybean Crush

NOPA soybean crush came out yesterday and the crush came in at 170.2 bushels per acre, that’s the second largest on record for the month of July and well above last years crush.

Our crush was 9.7% above last year, our year to date is up 2.6%, USDA is projecting that the annual crush will be up 3% with one month left in the reporting.

If next months crush is somewhere near record, like what we’ve been seeing the past 4-5 months, we should hit almost exactly the USDA estimate.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices broke through chart support today and had a very disappointing close.

The chart does look somewhat disappointing, and the technical indicators did turn down as well.

This tells us that there are additional downside risks in the corn market, the next level of major chart support would be the lows from a week ago at $5.87.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices broke through chart support yesterday, further losses today.

So, the soybean chart also turned downward recently with the technical pointed downward as well.

No sign of bottoming action which means the next level of chart support would be 13.56 and a gap that was left in the chart around 13.50.

September KC Wheat Chart

The wheat chart continues to show signs of bottoming action and we believe it will be in a U shape bottom.

If we are correct that wheat is forming a U shape bottom, we expect that wheat will work towards the $10 level as we move into the early Fall.

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