Grain prices finished mostly higher today as some international stories are indicating that global stocks of corn, bean, and wheat could remain tight.
Grain Market News
Looking at our past weather, temperatures yesterday in mostly the upper 70s low 80s across the corn and bean belt.
There were some 90s in the northern plains but that’s not a high production area and 90s down in the southeast Texas area.
The bulk of the U.S. corn and bean belt saw temperatures in the upper 70s-80s.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
We are expecting crop conditions to improve because we saw very nice rain from Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri.
Northern Illinois saw rain and Ohio saw very good rain as well.
Crop conditions in the plains may decline, South Dakota and Nebraska are likely to decline, Kansas, maybe North Dakota, as well as scattered areas in the eastern belt.
30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal
This is where we still see the dry pockets in the plains that has been dry, a pocket in Iowa into western central Illinois, and northeast Missouri.
Those areas could definitely use additional rain to finish out this year’s growing season.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
There is some rain in the central part of the corn and bean belt but most of this rain won’t fall until this weekend.
If you are in a dry pocket, it may be dry for another 4-5 days before it rains.
We are also going to monitor the rain in the deep south, the rain in the plains would be good news for our hard red wheat winter planting coming up but in the lower delta region it may be problem for the early harvest.
Temperatures look to be mostly a little above normal, the forecast has warmed a little from last week while the 8-14 day is mixed.
A little bit cooler to the south a little warmer to the north but close to normal.
Precipitation shows above normal precipitation for most of the belt including the deep south where they are going to be trying to harvest.
As we look to the 8-14 day we see drying conditions in the north half of the belt, remaining wet through the southern half.
This forecast may not be ideal, but we view it as mostly non-threatening.
Grain Market News
Pro Farm Tour History: Corn and Soybeans
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Corn inspection’s improved to 29.1 million bushels, that’s above the last 2 weeks but still well below the level needed.
From this chart it appears we will fall way short, but we do want to be aware that many of the exports that end up going to Canada and because of Canada’s massive drought last year we have a record amount going to Canada.
USDA actually left its export forecast unchanged last month.
Bottom line USDA did not adjust its export forecast in the August report and its very likely that our final exports could be close to the USDA current projection.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybeans down a little bit from the last couple weeks but still not a bad number at 25.2 million bushels.
Soybeans also expected to reach USDA’s current export forecast.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices continue to show some promising signs from chart perspective after breaking through our moving averages and then the moving averages turning to the upside and crossing over.
Now the 10- and 20-day moving averages crossed over the 40 days.
These are all positive items that when the market broke through and had a correction we came right down to where the moving averages are converging.
The overall chart looks good with the technical turning up as well.
Current overhead distance would be at 6.42 and current chart support at 6.04.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices look similar to corn, and they moved higher today making and high for this move over the last week or so.
The overall chart looks good, moving averages are lining up and crossing over the 40 day, and the only hick up we are coming close to overhead resistance from the downtrend line that’s been in place off of the June highs.
The current trend is up and that’s enough to have the technical turn up as well.
Overhead resistance lying close to 14.50, 15 cents above todays close.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices had two very disappointing days last week setting a new low, but they bounced back nicely on Friday closing sharply higher with additional gains today.
This market still looks as though it’s trying to establish a U shape bottom and we would not be surprised to see prices attacking the $10 level as we get into late summer and early Fall.
Questions or Comments