Our ratings fell 2% down to 55% good to excellent which compares to 57% last week and 60% last year.

Not only are crop conditions below last year they are below average and therefore this would hint at U.S. yields being below trend.

But before we get overly bullish keep in mind this year’s trend line yield is 181, USDA lowered that to 177 in May based on late planting then lowered it further to 175.4.

So, USDA is already projecting a yield that is 5-6 bushels per acre below trend.