Closing Market Comments August 24, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today after starting to see a little bit of consolidation following the big run up, we had seen recently.

Grain Market News

Pro Farmer 2022 Corp Tour- Corn

Lats night Indianan was released and came in at 177.9, that’s down 8% from last years.

USDA is projecting that Indiana’s yield will be down 3%, so that was seen as friendly.

Nebraska was released as well at 158.5, that’s down 13% from last year.

USDA is projecting yield will be down 3%, so a couple of additional bullish items in corn.

Pro Farmer 2022 Corp Tour- Soybeans

Indiana pod counts at 1166, down 6% from a year ago.

USDA is projecting Indiana’s yield to be unchanged.

Nebraska pod counts of 1064, down 13% from a year ago.

USDA is projecting that the US soybean yield will only be down by 8%.

Corn and Soybean Pro Farmer History

Corn over the past 11 years the pro farmer average yield is 161.1 compared to USDA’s august yield of 164.1.

Soybeans over the past 11 years is on average at 46 and they came in at 46.4.

Grain Market News

3-Day Observed Precipitation

Some rain along the U.S./Canadian border, not really affecting U.S. crops in a big way.

Some rain out in the central and western Dakota’s where there isn’t much for crops.

Big rains across the gulf coast where portions of northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, and the southern half of Mississippi have seen 4-10 inches of rain.

Unfortunately, this area along the gulf coast is an area where they are trying to start harvest and yet they’ve seen exceptionally heavy rain and flooding.

The heart of the bel tis not seeing much for rain.

30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

The eastern belt for the most part is in good shape down into the Ohio valley and even portions of the delta currently.

There are some dry pockets in portions of central Indiana and west central Illinois but overall, the eastern belt is doing good.

Much of Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma is still suffering due to dryness, and they certainly need a good shot of rain as well as areas within the Dakotas and even some pockets within Minnesota.

We mentioned that on and off heat and dryness throughout the growing season may have caused some challenges for Ohio and Indiana even though the eastern belt looks good as far as 30-day precipitation let’s look sat 90 days.

90-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

Portions of Indiana have missed out on better rain, maybe they seen rain recently, but they had some serious dryness concerns back in June.

Central Illinois also had some portions that had similar challenges.

The biggest issues are in Iowa, Nebraska, down into portions of the plains, as well as portions of southern Minnesota.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows some good moisture in the central part of belt.

The rains look to start moving in on Friday in the northwest belt, Saturday and Sunday in the central belt, and then Sunday into Monday in the eastern belt.

 Unfortunately, the Dakotas, much of Nebraska, and western Kansas may miss out on the better rain and crops are struggling to get crop relief in those areas.

Temperature Outlook

The forecast is starting to look warmer especially in the north.

The 6-10 day shows above normal precipitation, that continues in the 8-14 day.

If you are in a dry pocket the northwestern half of the belt could be dry over the next couple of weeks, outside of the rains that could fall over the weekend.

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production up slight from last week to 987 as the grain marketing year or crop year comes to an end.

Year to date ethanol production up 6.3%, USDA projecting that corn use for ethanol would be up 6.4%.

Weekly Stock of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks up to 23.798 million barrels which is a little disappointing given the slower ethanol production over the past couple of weeks.

Today’s report would be considered mixed news, ethanol production running on track, but stocks are increasing.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices made another new high for the move today at 6.71.

Now we did back off and closed at 6.57 but that was still slightly higher on the day.

The chart still looks good overall but if we are in fact developing somewhat of an upward pennant formation, we may be getting close to the upper end of that range.

With technical indicators getting close to the overbought area, some type of correction could be seen at any time.

Overhead resistance are the spike lows at 6.82 that were left in June.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also making a new high for the mov up to 14.84 today. That’s getting very close to the 14.89 level that was achieved back around the first of August.

Unfortunately, beans closed lower on the day at 14.57, that was 27 cents off the daily high.

We don’t expect the market is going to continue to go straight vertical, therefore setbacks and corrections could be seen.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices pushed to a new high up to 8.99, that did take out the high that was posted a week and a half ago at 8.97.

This market could be in the beginning stages of a significant rally, and we do believe wheat prices will work towards the $10 level as we go into Fall.

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