Grain markets finished higher across the board today as pro farmers crop tour continues to indicate lower yield potential.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
Pro Farmer Tour- Corn
Minnesota yield from pro farmer up 75 from last years number, USDA was projecting yield to be up 16% versus last year’s august estimate.
Even though pro farmer was higher for the year it still came in below the USDA.
Iowa had pro farmer at 183.8, down 4% from last year, USDA’s estimate at 205 was up 6% from last year August estimate.
Therefore, the Iowa number was clearly seen as a friendly or bullish number.
The final U.S. number for pro farmer at 168.1, down 5% from last year.
USDA yield at 175.4, so pro farmer comes in at 7.3 bushels per acre below USDA.
Pro Farmer Tour-Soybeans
Pro farm pod counts up 7% from a year ago In Minnesota, USDA projected up 16% from last August estimate.
In Iowa pod counts came in at 1174, that’s 4% below last years pod count, USDA projecting Iowa yield equal to last year’s august estimate.
So again, numbers for Iowa were considered friendly.
Pro Framer Tour History
Pro farmers yield at 51.7 is below USDA’s yield but only 2/10 of bushel.
Grain Market News
China Drought Indicator
In China you can see the southern half has seen significant issues.
This is a map showing root zone soil moisture, so the soil moisture for the top 1 meter or 3 feet of soil.
The biggest concern would be for rice production in China, but wheat, corn, and soybeans also to be affected by this drought developing.
Europe Drought Indicators
In Europe you can see from western Ukraine through almost all of Europe soil moisture is either dry or depleted.
Looking at the right, which is ground water, which is even deeper you can see the dramatic dryness issues.
U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change
Anything in yellow or tan are areas where drought has gotten worse.
So, the western belt, through much of the plains has seen drought get worse over the last 4 weeks.
There are some bright spots in portions of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, portions of the central eastern belt like central Illinois and Indiana have improved as well as significant improvement in Missouri, Arkansas, and right down through the delta into Louisiana.
30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal
It’s no surprise that there is improvement in Missouri, south, and down into the delta.
While much of the western belt and even into the northern plains has seen disappointing rains over the last 30 days.
That is where a very good soaking rain is needed to help finish of the crop.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Anywhere from ¾ to an inch could fall over the next 7 days in the central portion into the eastern belt.
Unfortunately, areas in the west like Nebraska, South Dakota, southwest Minnesota could continue to see dryer weather that could hinder the final process.
We still have an overall pattern of warmer to the north and western portions of the belt over the next 2 weeks and dryer over the northern half of the belt.
September Corn Chart
Corn prices have been consolidating following the early week rally as corn prices are a dollar higher than they were in late July.
Now the market is consolidating waiting for fresh news.
With the pro farmer yield at 168.1, we believe that could allow corn to post new highs on Monday.
September Soybean Chart
Soybean prices are testing overhead resistance and that’s at the upper end of our recent range.
The pro farmer crop tour was slightly negative with the yield at 151.7, that’s above what the trade was expecting.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices had a good day, we still are in an overall consolidation type action in mostly a sideways range.
But we do believe this is the beginning of what could be a U shape bottom and we are expecting prices to work higher.
We would not be surprised to see $10 wheat as we move into late summer and early Fall.
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