Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, not a lot of big new stories but a crop report coming out Monday left prices trading on both sides of unchanged.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Looking at the current weather, the central and eastern belt in the upper 70s and low 80s for highs yesterday.

Temperatures in the 90s to 100s in the plains but the most significant heat is in the far west so likely not having a huge impact on overall grain production.

Although areas of western Nebraska, western Kansas, eastern Colorado are certainly enjoying temperatures around 100.

Current Conditions

Our current conditions show a clear radar for almost the entire US corn and bean belt.

You do see up in Montana and the northwestern North Dakota the beginning of a cold front passing through in Friday-Sunday time frame.
Temperatures in northwestern North Dakota, eastern Montana in the 60s while we have 90s and 100s in the western plains.

Good news for the bulk of the US corn and bean belt, temperatures today mostly in the low to mid 80s.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

As that front that we mentioned, right now it’s in northwest North Dakota and Montana but tomorrow it will push through Minnesota, South Dakota, moving into Iowa on Saturday and then into northern Illinois Sunday.

There is a chance for some rain to fall from eastern Nebraska through much of Iowa with its frontal passage.

Temperature Outlook

After that front we get back into warmer temperatures in the 6-10 day and extending into the 8-14 day.

So, an extended summer growing season looks to continue with no frost in sight.

Precipitation looks to be dryer in the southern corn and bean belt in the 6-10 day and that extends into the 8-14 day with.

A chance for some wetter conditions in the northwestern plains in the 6-10 and much of the northern belt in the 8-14 day.

Overall, we look at this forecast as being mostly favorable, although if you are in an area that’s extremely dry the warmer dryer conditions in the forecast likely going to continue to stress crops.

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production was up from last week up to 989 thousand barrels per day.

This year USDA is projecting that corn use for ethanol will be up half of 1%, that would require 982 thousand barrels per day.

So, we are slightly above the level needed.

Since last year at this time ethanol production was very low, currently after 2 weeks our ethanol production is up 7.2% from a year ago level.

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol stocks fell from last week down to 23.138 million gallons, that’s good news when you have higher ethanol production and yet lower stocks of fuel ethanol.

Stocks are still very high for this time of year, but it was good news that stocks were able to decline from a week agio.

Bottom line is that today’s weekly ethanol report was considered mostly supportive for the corn market.

Crude Oil

The crude oil market has been falling, you can see the trend in the corn market clearly a down trend.

That puts pressure on energy prices as a whole.

Corn Price vs. Crude Oil Price

Looking at a chart that shows corn in red today at 6.74, but corn prices have been rallying consistently since late July while the crude oil market and energy prices in general have been falling.

As we mentioned before, generally crude oil and corn prices travel in a similar direction but recently the rally in corn and the fall in crude are not good for ethanol margins.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices are clearly in an uptrend but yesterday on the rally to new highs at 6.88 we are getting back close to the upper end of that up trending channel.

Today prices did pull back and technical indicators are still in the overbought area and showing signs of wanting to turn a little lower.

We are not overly bearish, but we must respect the fact that corn prices could pull back into the 6.50 level in the short term.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are trending lower off the high posted a little over 2 weeks ago at 14.84.

This market has fallen a little over a $1 to todays low at 13.73.

Soybeans have several chart points that could provide support, one of them was the 13.76 low from late August and a spike low at 13.56 from July.

Soybeans could have another 20-30 cents of downside risk if the market would attempt to fill the gap from July.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat did close lower today but overall yesterday’s push to new highs at 9.34 was a good chart signal and still hints this market is making a U shape bottom.

We would not be surprised to see prices work higher into her Fall.

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