Closing Market Comments September 13, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as the trade is continuing to digest the news from USDA’s crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks

This year which began September 1st, ending stocks declined from 1.388 a month ago down to 1.219. 169-million-bushel reduction in ending stocks.

Our stocks overall are somewhat similar to where they were last year at this time.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

USDA’s projection at 1.219 would be the lowest going back to the post drought area from 2012-2014.

Clearly U.S. stocks are projected to be quite tight headed into next years growing season.

December Corn

Last yar the market pulled back in September, in fact moved down to $4.97 while this year overnight last night we traded close to $7.

2 years ago, prices in September were down around 3.50-3.75 and rallied up to 4.25 in the November-December timeframe.

U.S. Soybeans Monthly Ending Stocks

Soybeans dropped from 245 last month to 200 million bushels this month.

They aren’t as tight as they were projected to be, but we are still down near the lower end of the range.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stock

A year ago, we had stocks projected at 120 they ended up at 257. Our stocks at 200 would be the tightest stock going back to the 2016 timeframe.

November Soybeans

The market is factoring in some very bullish news and prices may not be record but they are very high at the $15 range.

U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks

Stocks at 610 are very tight from a historical perspective, we may not be as tight as we were projected to be last year in the October November timeframe, but 610 is still very tight.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

610 is relatively tight, the tightest we’ve been since 2014 and there is not a lot of room for error in the US wheat supply and demand.

KC December Wheat

We are currently trading at 9.30 per bushel, a year ago we were trading around $7 per bushel and 2 years ago we were trading around $5.

U.S. Grain Stocks

Corn, soybeans, and wheat added together and when we look at those numbers over the last 20 years, we can see this year’s combined stocks is just over 2 billion bushels.

This will be the tightest going back to the post drought timeframe in 2012-2014.

Grain Market News

December Corn Chart

Corn prices have rallied up to a $7 target.

We are right up against the $7 level and right up against the down trend line.

The technical indicators are overbought and todays slightly lower close did start to turn those technical indicators a little bit.

Initial chart support on a pullback would likely comeback into the 6.50-6.55 range.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices exploded to the upside on bullish news from USDA yesterday and we saw follow through to the upside this morning.

Taking prices to 15.08 and nearly matching the spike highs from early July.

Unfortunately, prices did pull back and we closed lower on the day at 14.78, so we did close 30 cents off the daily high.

A combination of harvest pressure and lower outside markets could give us a harvest break with chart support likely coming into play in the 14.10-14.25 range.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat continues to show evidence of a U shape bottom and we still believe prices can work towards the $10 level as we move towards the fall months.

It doesn’t have to happen all at once and this market could pull back toward chart support in the 8.85-9.00 range.

If corn and soybeans have a harvest pullback it will be difficult for wheat to rally on its own.

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