Last year the USDA crop estimate from August to September went up from 50 to 50.6 and then to 51.5 in October.

This year USDA lowered the yield from 51.9 in August to 50.5 in September and there is some concern that we could reduce the yield further in October.

Last year an increasing crop gave us weaker prices as we headed towards harvest, this year a declining crop has prices increasing.