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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher to sharply higher today as U.S. crop conditions fell for both corn and beans and tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine.

Grain Market News

Russian Referendum

Luhansk and Donetsk where Russia is in control of certain areas and then the other two areas Kherson and Zaporizhzhia also with Russian control in areas.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

We are down 1% for the second week in a row, this year current conditions are 52% good to excellent.

That’s extremely low for this late in the season, in fact its very low for any time during nay growing season.

Corn Change in G/E

This week shows that just 3 states seen conditions improve which was North Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota.

We had a handful that held steady but quite a few saw a decline and some of these significant like Ohio, Nebraska, and South Dakota down 3-5.

Soybean Crop Condition

Soybean crop condition has now fallen for 2 weeks in a row by 1% which leaves us at 55% good to excellent compared to 58% last year.

Soybean Change in G/E

2 states improved since last week which was Mississippi and North Dakota each up 5.

4 states held steady including Iowa and Illinois.

12 states saw a decline including Indiana down 2, Minnesota down 2, Ohio down 2, Kansas and Nebraska down 3, Arkansas down 4, and South Dakota down 9.

U.S. Corn Yield

Last week USDA lowered the crop from 175.4 to 172.5, that was down 2.9 bushels per acre.

As you can see from the chart, we are well below average.

Hot and dry conditions in portions of the west combined with deteriorating crop conditions, many traders believe this number could still push lower.

U.S. Soybean Yield

USDA lowered the yield from 51.9 which was slightly above the long-term average of 51.5 and lowered it to 50.5 which is down 1.4 bushels per acre from last month.

The trade is concerned that this number could still slip lower as well.

October Crop Report Yield Changes

Last year corn was up 2/10 of a bushel from September to October, beans were up 9 cents of a bushel from September to October.

This year the trade is concerned that both could slip lower.

High Temperatures

Cro conditions declined the last 2 weeks by 1% point each week and it’s very possible they could slip lower next week.

Part of it due to heat, we have tremendous heat for this time of year across the southern, western belt and into the plains.

Now weather is not as significant of a factor now that it would have been a month or two months ago, but we are still hearing crop reports of the crop is drying down extremely fast in the western belt and into the plains.

Today’s highs are going to be equally as hot to yesterday and even hotter in portions.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

A cool front tomorrow could produce a little precipitation in the northern plains into the northwestern belt and then maybe some decent rains across the Kansas Nebraska border.

Temperature Outlook

Our forecast call for heat to the west, normal to the east in the 6-10 day and then everybody getting warm in the 8-14 day.

If you have adequate moisture the heat is just extending the overall growing condition but if you do not have adequate moisture the 6-10 and 8-14 day both look very dry, and crops could continue to push towards maturity with yield suffering due to lack of moisture.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices continue to be in an uptrend off the July lows that were set at 5.61.

Last week’s high at 6.99 would be the next objective if we can continue to get friendly news.

Keep in mind we are back up against some overhead resistance from our downtrend line that’s been in place off the May highs at 7.66.

The rebound yesterday and then sharp rally today were enough to turn the technical upward.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also in an uptrend off the July lows.

The highs were set back in June at 15.84, after turning lower late last week the market has now reversed and is turning higher again.

That has the technical indicators back in an upward direction.

This market may want to test those highs up in the $15 range.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look somewhat disappointing yesterday down sharply but the Russian new caused wheat to go sharply higher today. 

Another new high for the move at 9.64, overall, it keeps the long-term trend intact.

We still believe $10 is a potential target.

Questions or Comments

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