Grain markets finished mixed today as there is no driving bullish or bearish story, there are stories on either side of the ledger creating mixed trade.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
We are only 3 weeks into the marketing year, but this week’s export sales were very disappointing.
The lowest over the last 7 years for the third week of September at 182.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales
Soybeans were disappointing as well with the lowest over the last 7 years for the third week of September at just 446 thousand tons.
Soybean export sales will improve as we go through October-December, but we are starting out very poorly.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat sales were also disappointing at 184 thousand tons, the second lowest over the last 7 years.
As we saw from the last 3 charts: corn, soybeans, and wheat export sales very disappointing last week.
Grain Market News
Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Russia plans to have votes in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson which is only about 15% of Russia but it’s a key area.
Kherson and Zaporizhia are keys along the Sea of Azoz both commercially for shipments but also militarily.
It would then extend Russia’s land to the west of Crimea and put them in an excellent position to try to take over Mykolaiv and Odesa, which Odesa has the largest port.
Ukraine: Corn Production
The ongoing battle which is primarily in the circled area won’t necessarily affect corn production as much as it will affect wheat or other corps.
If Russia takes over the entire coastline, Ukraine will be shut off from exports which could be a factor for all grains.
Ukraine: Wheat Production
Wheat is grown, in fact 20% is grown, in the areas we have been discussing.
Production in those areas will certainly be hindered by the ongoing war as well as exports.
Ukraine: Sunflower Seed and Barley
Sunflowers with quite of bit of production in these areas, but again exports will be significantly affected as well.
Barley another feed grain with significant production in these areas, but the market is concerned that an ongoing war will limit production.
The cold front is pushing though now.
Yesterday’s highs shown on this map with 90s and 100s pushed further south into the southern plains, delta, and even portions of southern Illinois while much cooler temperatures taking place in the western and central belt.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
There are some lingering showers in portions of Kansas, mostly light rains.
We don’t see any heavy rain in the belt over the next 7 days.
Looking at the next 2 weeks we have a warming trend that will begin next week in the western belt and have the entire corn belt above normal in the 8-10 day.
Below normal precipitation in the 6-10 and the 8–14-day forecast.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices are near the upper end of the range, but we have been quite choppy and mostly sideways over the last few weeks.
The combination of friendly news from the crop report and supportive news coming from the Russia/Ukraine war has us near the upper end of the range.
So far, the market has been unable to break through overhead resistance.
The trend on corn is still pointed upward and to keep the trend going we need to take out yesterday’s high and then the high from last week.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also in an uptrend off the July lows, yesterday’s high was unable to take out the high from last week.
This leaves areas around the $15 level overhead resistance for the current soybean chart.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices continue to be the most impressive from a chart perspective making another new high today up to 9.89.
We are getting very close to our initial target of $10.
$10 doesn’t mean that’s the top, but that has been our target for the past couple of months.
Technical indicators are getting into the overbought range
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