Closing Market Comments September 29, 2022

Today’s Prices

Currently grain markets are mixed ahead of USDA’s stocks report coming out tomorrow.

Grain Market News

Quarterly Stocks

Corn, which is the final ending stocks, are estimated at 1497 that would be 28 million bushels below the September crop report.

Soybeans expected to come in at 247 bushels, that would be up 7 million bushels from the September crop report.

Wheat estimated to come in at 1795, that would be up 21 million bushels from last year’s September stock.

The trade is not expecting any major adjustments, therefore any large changes in USDA’s number could produce significant market moves.

U.S. Wheat Production 2022

The trade is expecting total wheat production to come in at 1784 billion bushels which is virtually unchanged from August and September.

Grain Market News

U.S. Drought Monitor

Looking at the drought monitor which was released this morning.

You continue to see drought in the western belt through all the U.S. plains while the eastern belt and Ohio valley are in good shape for the most part.

Drought Monitor Class Change

This is the drought that has changed over the last 8 weeks,

Where drought has improved it is green and blue and where it has gotten worse it is yellow or tan.

As you can see much of the western belt and the plains drought has gotten worse through August and September.

That has many producers in the western belt into the plains very concerned that yields could be poor due to dry conditions.

U.S. Temperatures

Overall, we have avoided a major or early frost.

We had some in North Dakota during the month of September, a little bit in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa yesterday, and this morning the only frost is in northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan where this isn’t much crop grown.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Precipitation has been very light for the last 7 days, that’s allowing harvest to really ramp up.

Hurricane Ian has produced tremendous rain from 10-15 inches.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

This hurricane, which is now a tropical storm, could intensify over the Atlantic Ocean and could produce extremely heavy rains across the eastern seaboard.

This could cause some issues but that isn’t a major area for US production.

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn sales at 512 were up from last week but still below and well below the level needed at 914.

If we ae going to reach the USDA forecast, we need to be above that black lien for several weeks.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports also improved nicely form last week up to 1003mmt, but we need to see this level in the October-December timeline.

Right now, we seem to be on track to reach the USDA current soybean export forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat improved from last week to 280 this week but still below the level needed at 346.

US exports on wheat could improve as we move through winter.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices treading water right at chart support.

We need to hold that chart support from a chart perspective to prevent the market moving down into the 6.36-6.42 range as we head towards harvest.

Tomorrow’s quarterly grain stock report is likely going to determine if this market can retest the double top close to $7 or if we push below $6.50.

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans have been testing chart support and treading water at that level.

We need to get some bullish news to push this market back higher or risk a market pushing back towards the $13.50 level on some harvest lows.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat still has an overall U shape formation in place and looks good overall.

We still believe that wheat has an opportunity to move towards $10 or 10.10 for an overall chart objective.

That doesn’t mean that’s the top that’s just the objective this Fall.

Questions or Comments